1、 Price trend
LNG prices continued to fall in the second half of April. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on April 27 was 2953.33 yuan / ton, 8.47% lower than that on April 16, and 13.14% lower than that of the same period last year. On April 26, the LNG commodity index was 72.79, down 0.74 points from yesterday, 65.17% from 208.96 (2017-12-25), the highest point in the cycle, and 5.72% higher than 68.85, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)
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2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Products: as of April 27, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Erdos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. was 2970 yuan / ton, Inner Mongolia etokeqian banner Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 2920 yuan / ton, Xinjiang Guanghui naomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) was about 2850 yuan / ton, Shanxi Qinshui Xinao LNG price was 3050 yuan / ton, Shaanxi Zhongyuan Green Energy Co., Ltd The LNG price of Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 2970 yuan / ton, that of Dazhou Huixin Energy Co., Ltd. is 3300 yuan / ton, and that of Xinjiang Qinghua is 3900 yuan / ton.
Market analysis: LNG market in the second half of the month was not good, and the price continued to fall. Recently, the international oil price has been falling, even negative, which has an impact on the long-term price of LNG import, and there is a risk of further decline in imported gas. The imported sea gas is of high quality and low price, which impacts the domestic LNG market, and it is in the off-season. The downstream demand is general, the inventory of liquid plants is on the high side, and the sales pressure is high. As well as approaching the May Day holiday, dangerous chemical vehicles on the expressway will be restricted. Most manufacturers continue to reduce their prices to seek benefits. The domestic LNG price is subject to multiple pressures and the price drops frequently. At present, most LNG prices in the north are below 3000 yuan, hovering on the cost line, and the profits of liquid plants are shrinking. Today’s decline is suspended, but there is still a risk of falling LNG in the future. Many negative factors such as consumption off-season, intake shock, and sufficient market supply add up, and LNG price may not rise significantly in a short period of time.
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News: in March, natural gas production reached 16.9 billion cubic meters, up 11.2% year on year, with an average daily output of 540 million cubic meters. In the first quarter, 48.3 billion cubic meters of natural gas were produced, up 9.1% year on year. 6.92 million tons of imported natural gas, down 0.2% year on year. In the first quarter, 24.66 million tons of natural gas were imported, up 1.8% year on year. China imported 4.19 million tons of liquefied natural gas in March, up 4.3% year on year, and 2.73 million tons of natural gas in March, down 5.3% year on year.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 16th week of 2020 (4.20-4.24), there is one kind of commodity in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the energy sector, with diesel rising (0.67%). There are 11 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are WTI crude oil (- 34.08%), Brent crude oil (- 11.72%), and dimethyl ether (- 7.75%). This week’s average was – 4.6%.
3、 Future forecast
According to the LNG analyst of Business Club: at present, the enthusiasm of downstream receiving is not high in the off-season, the market digestion capacity is weakened, and restricted by factors such as the impact of intake tone, the domestic LNG market continues to decline, with prices falling continuously and hovering near the cost line. It is expected that the LNG market will be weak in the short term, and the good will be hard to find, mostly dominated by low consolidation, and there is still a falling expectation
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