Aluminum market trend
On April 16, 2020, the average price of domestic spot aluminum ingots was 12016.67 yuan / ton, and the price of aluminum returned to 12000.
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According to the data of business agency, as of April 16, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 12016.67 yuan / ton, up 4.25% from 11526.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (April 1).
Cost support
Since the end of March, there have been about 6 domestic enterprises (including the plan) engaged in centralized production reduction and maintenance, affecting the production capacity of 445000 tons / year. Based on the current low price of aluminum ingots, some manufacturers avoid large losses through production reduction, shutdown and maintenance. Meanwhile, some new production capacity is willing to reduce, with a slight delay.
Although the price of upstream raw material alumina has moved down, the cost side support of electrolytic aluminum price is still strong.
Reduction of unsalable inventory caused by the epidemic
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Due to the continuous production characteristics of electrolytic aluminum, there is a cumulative inventory difference between this year and the downstream. With the resumption of upstream and downstream production and the solution of transportation problems, downstream aluminum deep processing enterprises have sufficient aluminum water supply, and the orderly resumption of production of aluminum profiles, finished products and other industries, the slow-moving inventory of aluminum ingots is gradually reduced.
Aluminum enterprises adjust product structure flexibly to reduce cost and create efficiency
The decline of aluminum price has a great impact on aluminum enterprises. In the early stage, sales and inventory reduction will further lower the market price. Aluminum enterprises have to take various measures to reduce the purchase cost of raw and auxiliary materials. At the same time, some enterprises flexibly adjust the product structure, such as aluminum nose strips for N95 masks issued by Yunnan Aluminum research and Development Co., Ltd., to help win the prevention and control of the epidemic.
Expected market outlook
According to the historical price trend, the current price is not high and the cost is strongly supported. In the second quarter, the demand is expected to turn warm. It is expected that the near-term rate will be stable and strong.
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