1、 Price trend
On April 10, the average ex factory price of oil-based glycol in North China was 3417 yuan / ton, down 2.38% from last Friday, according to the data of business agency.
On April 9, the price of large-scale single can of ethylene glycol in East China was 3405 yuan / ton, up 75 yuan / ton or 2.25% from the beginning of the week.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
| Benzalkonium chloride |
As of April 9, the glycol inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was about 1145200 tons, an increase of 24600 tons or 2.20% compared with last Thursday, and an increase of 4300 tons or 0.38% compared with this Monday. Inventory is still high, but the rate of accumulation slows down.
In terms of shipment, this week, the main port of Zhangjiagang delivered about 5400 tons per day, while Taicang delivered about 1900 tons per day to the two warehouses, which remained at a low level.
At present, the operating rate of glycol is about 59%, which is lower than that of last week. The operating rate of polyester downstream is about 81%, which is slightly higher than that of last week.
In terms of equipment, Xinjiang Tianye has an annual output of 350000 tons of glycol plant, which was shut down for maintenance on April 4, and the restart time has not been determined. Maoming Petrochemical Branch reduces the load of glycol section, reduces losses and increases efficiency.
3、 Analysis and prediction
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Affected by the positive trend of crude oil during the Qingming period, the spot and futures prices of glycol have recovered this week. However, with the end of crude oil rally, glycol market expectations gradually fell back.
At present, coal manufacturing enterprises have suffered serious losses, and various units have begun to reduce load and stop work for maintenance to avoid risks. However, due to the continuous supply of imported goods, there is no downward trend in inventory. The downstream operation rate has increased, but due to the impact of the global epidemic, foreign trade orders continue to be cancelled and exports are limited.
In the early morning of April 10, OPEC + meeting reached a framework agreement to reduce production by 10 million barrels / day in the next two months. If crude oil can stop falling and recover in the later period, glycol price is expected to fluctuate upward.
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