1、 Price trend
According to the data of the large scale list of business associations, the market price of domestic propylene (Shandong) rose rapidly in the first ten days of April after a slight fall, which was 5239 yuan / ton on April 1; the ten day high price on April 10, which was 5957 yuan / ton, increased by 13.71%; the ten day low price on April 2, which was 5185 yuan / ton, with a ten day amplitude of 14.90%.
2、 Analysis and comment
Product: the price of propylene in Shandong Province fell in shock last month, and dropped sharply again at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of more than 15%. On the first day, the price continued to decline by 100-200 yuan / ton. On the second day, it still declined by 50 yuan / ton. On the third day, the price of some enterprises increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. After the Qing Dynasty, the price of propylene increased steadily. On the seventh day, the price of propylene increased by 100 yuan / ton every day. Today, it increased by 200-300 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction has risen to 5900-6100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 5900 yuan / ton.
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Industry chain: in the upstream, influenced by the international situation, the international crude oil market last month repeatedly reported new lows, but the market continued to rise after the sharp fluctuation of the price on February 2. Now, many countries have introduced production reduction policies to improve the crude oil market and increase the propylene price. But on the other hand, the production reduction is not up to the expectation, so the pulling effect of propylene will be weakened.
In this ten day, PP spot rose sharply after stabilizing, with a 10 day increase of 11.45%, and this week’s increase of 14.36%. Polypropylene futures market continued to rise significantly, and there were trading limits, which also had a great positive impact on propylene.
This ten day acrylic acid market fell in shock, falling 6.22% in ten day, which had a certain negative impact on propylene.
In this ten day period, the market of propylene oxide rebounded after the decline, with a ten day drop of 1.72% and a ten day amplitude of 6.03%, eliminating part of the negative impact on propylene.
Epichlorohydrin was stable in this ten day period, down 1.48%, with little impact on propylene.
In this ten day period, the price of domestic n-butanol rose after a slight decline, with a rise of 3.44% in ten day period and 5.04% in weekly period, which had a certain positive impact on propylene.
This ten day octanol market fell after the correction, ten day increase of 0.32%, ten day amplitude of 4.28%, slightly positive impact on propylene.
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Affected by the epidemic situation, isopropanol market, as one of the raw materials of foreign disinfectants, continued to rise steadily in April, with an increase of 11.11% in ten days, which still had a great positive impact on propylene.
The phenol Market in Shandong Province fell in this ten day period and then recovered, with a ten day drop of 1.86% and a ten day amplitude of 7.11%, which had a certain positive impact on propylene.
The acetone market in Shandong Province has recovered continuously after a slight decline in this ten day period, with an increase of 9.32% and an amplitude of 15.79%, which has a significant positive impact on propylene.
3、 Future forecast
According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of business society, in a comprehensive view, recently affected by the international crude oil market, the agreement on production reduction was initially reached, although it did not fully achieve the expected effect, it still had a certain pull up effect on propylene. However, PP futures in the lower reaches rose significantly, showing a trend of fluctuation. Most of the other downstream markets are also ideal, which has a certain positive effect on propylene. It is expected that the price of propylene will continue to rise in recent days, but the increase range and time are greatly affected by crude oil.
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