Since October 2019, the chemical market has been declining continuously, especially in 2020, it is like riding a roller coaster, falling out of a “new height” for three consecutive months. According to the monitoring data of the business association, the chemical industry index fell 96 points in March, 621 points on March 31, 14 points lower than that on March 30, 38.88% lower than the highest point 1016 (2012-03-13), and 3.50% higher than the lowest point 600 (Note: WTI crude oil 26.7 in January 2016). The chemical market swoops down, but the current chemical market has not reached the bottom. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)
According to the price monitoring of business agency (100ppi. Com), a bulk commodity data provider under the business treasure of netsheng, according to the price monitoring of business agency, in March 2020, there are 24 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, compared with that in February, there are 4 kinds of commodities in the chemical sector, including 7 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are isopropanol (55.64%) , formic acid (20.51%), ammonium chloride (20.48%).
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A total of 59 goods fell month on month, an increase of 11 compared with February. There are 46 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, an increase of 19 kinds compared with February, accounting for 52.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline are pure benzene (- 49.82%), crude benzene (- 36.94%) and toluene (- 33.67%). The average rise and fall in March was – 8.47%, compared with the average rise and fall of – 2.53% in February, and the fall volume and decline of the whole chemical products in March further increased.
For the chemical market, March is undoubtedly the most miserable month. On the one hand, the negotiation of Russia’s crude oil production reduction broke down, which caused the crude oil to plummet overnight, with the WTI crude oil dropping as much as 56.51% in the whole March; on the other hand, the overseas public health events continued to spread, with 840000 people in nearly 200 countries confirmed and no turning point yet. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the chemical market recorded its biggest monthly decline in a decade in March, down 16.13%.
Three segments continue to create myth for a better product
From the perspective of sub sectors, the fertilizer sector, fluorine chemical raw materials and a few pharmaceutical raw materials continued to maintain the overall upward momentum in March, among which the raw materials trend of each industrial chain is more eye-catching. Isopropanol is unique. Due to the demand of overseas disinfection market, the export of isopropanol increased significantly, up 57.4% in a single month. The details are as follows:
1. The fertilizer sector maintained a good momentum in March. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 7 rising commodities and 2 falling commodities in the price up and down list of chemical fertilizer in March 2020. The main rising commodities are ammonium chloride (20.48%), liquid ammonia (14.20%), monoammonium phosphate (4.52%); the main falling commodities are ammonium nitrate (- 2.94%) and urea (- 1.90%). In March, the fertilizer sector was up or down 4.7%. Demand: with the increase of agricultural seasonal demand, in this year’s spring ploughing and fertilizer preparation stage, the chemical fertilizer market is the first to lead the chemical industry, and with the support of the state’s high-speed and free policies, the industrial demand after the festival has also maintained a good momentum, but dropped to a certain extent year on year. Supply: in March, the operating rate of chemical fertilizer enterprises gradually increased, the overall supply increased, and the inventory pressure was large. In terms of import and export, according to the data released by the national customs, the import and export volume of chemical fertilizer in the first two months has both declined. The international situation is not optimistic, which leads to the lack of market confidence and has a negative impact on the import and export. In general, the chemical fertilizer sector went up for a decent period in March, but in April, affected by the international and domestic supply and demand situation, the export will also die, and the chemical fertilizer products will go up Or it will be suspended, with minor shocks in April.
2. Fluorite and hydrofluoric acid, as the raw materials of fluorine chemical industry, generally rose first and then fell in March. At the initial stage, they continued the sharp rise in February. Under the situation of tight market supply, fluorite and hydrofluoric acid rose sharply, with the increase of 18% and 11% respectively. After the resumption of production in late March, with the rise of temperature, fluorite enterprises in the North continued to resume work The supply of stone enterprises increased, and the price of fluorite with sufficient supply within the site fell. However, the demand of terminal refrigeration industry has declined sharply. Recently, the air conditioning industry is in a recession. There is strong resistance to high price raw materials. Manufacturers of hydrofluoric acid are not active in purchasing, which reflects serious losses and accelerates the plunge of raw materials.
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3. Since March, due to the increasing demand of overseas disinfectant Market, isopropanol has soared after entering the middle of March. According to the monitoring data of business agency, isopropanol in East China was offered at 6025 yuan / ton on March 13 and 10233.3 yuan / ton on March 31, with an overall increase of 55.64% and an amplitude of 69.85% in March. With the spread of the overseas epidemic, it is expected that the use of disinfectants will not decrease from April to May. At present, the order is scheduled to the middle of April, and the supply of disinfectants in the late April in East China has improved. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of isopropanol in Shandong is 10000-12000 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu is 10000-15000 yuan / ton. The current market still has some conflicts with the high price, so we should continue to pay attention to the country The development of international epidemic situation and the flow of market resources in the later stage.
The chemical market has been devastated by the collapse of crude oil
The price of crude oil will determine the focus of petrochemical industry. In March, the chemical industry market with crude oil plummeting was devastated, with all-round green. Petrochemical products such as aromatics industry chain, propylene industry chain, styrene industry chain and phenol ketone industry chain fell sharply, setting a new record for five years and ten years. As shown in the figure below:
The sharp decline of domestic chemical market in March is mainly due to the sudden drop of crude oil and the spread of public events, and domestic demand is not getting better. Especially, aromatics and benzene in the downstream of crude oil declined significantly. Pure benzene fell 49.82% in March, ranking first. In order to hedge losses and reduce costs as soon as possible, the enterprise operating rate picked up in March, making domestic supply under the condition that demand is not getting better Further increase, coupled with the impact of the arrival of low-cost pure benzene outside Shanghai, made the domestic market drop again and again. The decline of pure benzene has driven the whole industrial chain of crude benzene, hydrobenzene, toluene, xylene, styrene, phenol, etc. At present, market confidence is insufficient, various stimulus policies have not formed a virtuous circle, and the market is still bearish.
Looking forward to the future market, business and social chemical analysts believe that since February 2020, the whole market has been broken by public health events, breaking the domestic market in the first quarter and breaking the overseas market in the second quarter. At present, there are still two points to pay attention to: first, the negotiation on crude oil among Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States. According to relevant reports, the global oil storage space will be filled up in six weeks, which will force the unprecedented large-scale crude oil production capacity to close. In the face of the current demand downturn, even if production reduction and price protection are achieved, it will also recover in the short term, which is hard to say good for the medium and long term, and the pressure on energy and chemical products will continue; second It is the progress of the overseas epidemic, whether the U.S. can have a turning point at the end of April, the number of confirmed cases in India after “21 days”, etc. at present, domestic demand is recovering, but the international situation has greater pressure on the domestic backlash, which is equivalent to pressing the tentative key for the export market of the terminal. To sum up, the long-term recovery of the market still depends on the development of overseas public health events. Only when the events are controlled can the demand recover slowly, and the transaction volume transmitted to the entire industrial chain will increase. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the chemical industry index is 614 points at present. In March, the chemical industry index is down 96 points, which is still far from the lowest point of 600 points on January 31, 2016. According to the current situation, the chemical industry market continues to bottom in April. The business agency expects the chemical industry index to reach 570 points, a new low in ten years.
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