1、 Price trend:
According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic ABS market continued its previous weak trend and expanded in March, with a large reduction in spot prices. As of April 1, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 10850.00 yuan / ton, 14.90% lower than the average price at the beginning of March.
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2、 Analysis of influencing factors:
Industrial chain: in all upstream aspects of BS, styrene market dropped significantly in March. Domestic styrene prices fell in the first half of the month due to bad news from crude oil chemical industry. To the second half of the month is directly reflected in the weak trend of the cost side dragging down the price of styrene. Near the end of the month, panic increased in Europe and the United States, and prices in overseas markets fell sharply. The price gap between regions has been widened, there is room for arbitrage, and there are some hedging operations in China, which aggravates the pressure on the basis of weak market. Although domestic supply fell at the end of the month, both factory and port inventories are expected to decline. However, the market is not optimistic about the future due to the biased bearish intention and the impact of overseas health events. Although there are some bottoming phenomena, the price decline cannot be prevented;
In the first half of the month, acrylonitrile was also affected by the negative news of crude oil chemical industry. In addition, new production capacity has been added in the near future, which made the site bearish. The downstream return to work rate is lower than that before the festival, or even the load reduction occurs at the end of the month. Just a few orders are needed for goods preparation, and it is difficult to improve in a short time due to the shrinking demand. At present, the market is lack of positive boost, and the mentality of the industry is low. It is expected that the market of acrylonitrile will not improve in the near future;
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In March, the domestic butadiene market continued a weak downward trend, and macro negative news such as the sharp drop in crude oil led to the cautious attitude of domestic businesses. The downturn in downstream enquiries dragged down the pressure on supplier prices, and the overall market focus continued to decline. In addition, European market supply pressure, the downstream rubber industry inventory high, outside the market is not lack of low price news. At present, the domestic butadiene spot supply is abundant, but the export situation of downstream products market is not good, and the high inventory of synthetic rubber industry in the middle end of the industrial chain is under pressure; moreover, in the near future, the European butadiene supply is abundant, and the market is full of low-cost news, which obviously drags the mentality of domestic merchants. At the same time, the news of low price transaction spread in the domestic market, dragging the overall decline of butadiene market. The supply and demand fundamentals of internal and external market are hard to be supported by good news in the short term. The short-term domestic butadiene market continues the weak downward trend. It is suggested to pay attention to the guidance of internal and external transaction news;
3、 Future forecast:
Business analysts believe that the ABS market fell in March, and the decline in various brands of spot goods increased. Cost side of the upstream three materials are not good in the near future, the support for the cost side is weak. At present, the spot supply of ABS is relatively sufficient, but the downstream demand is weak. The market is dominated by negative factors, and the external news is short, so the confidence of merchants is hit and they actively reduce the price of goods. It is expected that domestic ABS prices will continue to weaken in the near future.
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