1、 Price trend
According to the data in the business club’s large scale list, this week’s decline of pure benzene continued last week. Last week’s price of pure benzene was 3500-4000 yuan / ton (average price 3800 yuan / ton); this week’s price of pure benzene was 2850-3700 yuan / ton (average price 2940 yuan / ton), down 860 yuan / ton from last week, down 22.63%.
2、 Analysis and comment
1. Product: this week, the price focus of pure benzene has shifted sharply again. Continuing the situation last week, Sinopec continued to fall for two consecutive times this week, with the listing price of pure benzene reduced by 800 yuan / ton to 2900 yuan / ton. The fundamental contradiction of pure benzene is gradually increasing. Raw materials: the crude oil price is low, the price of pure benzene in the external market continues to fall, the arbitrage window in the internal and external market opens, and the arrival volume of imported pure benzene increases. In terms of downstream demand: the overall downstream starting load this week shows a downward trend, with poor terminal demand. Port inventory: this week’s port inventory is significantly higher than last week’s, and refinery inventory is high. Multiple negative effects, this week pure benzene fell endlessly.
| EDTA |
3. Outside: compared with March 20, South Korea’s import of pure benzene fell by 105.33 USD / ton, or 24.88%; East China’s import of pure benzene fell by 95.5 USD / ton, or 22.21%. At present, the arbitrage of internal and external market is open, and the arrival volume is increased, hitting the domestic pure benzene market.
3. Crude oil: this week, the oil price was in the bottom shock. Oil prices rallied in the middle of the week in favor of a massive US economic stimulus plan. But the week was still down, with concerns that demand for oil continued to be negative. Compared with March 20, Brent fell 16.86% and WTI fell 2.93% this week. Compared with February 28, 2020, Brent fell 58.21% and WTI fell 44.04% this month. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 68.4% and WTI by 58.61%.
4. Downstream industry: the overall operating rate of downstream products of pure benzene decreased this week.
The operation rate of styrene plant in China has been reduced, the domestic supply has been reduced, and the situation of arrival at the port has been reduced compared with that in the earlier stage. This week, the styrene market price fell continuously, and most domestic enterprises reduced prices and promoted sales. Friday’s price was 4716.67 yuan / ton, down 6.29% from last week and 44.29% from the same period last year.
This week, the market price of aniline was stable, individual enterprises shut down their equipment, and the supply and demand were balanced. On Friday, the price in Shandong is 5900 yuan / ton, and in Nanjing is 6150 yuan / ton.
| Melamine |
3、 Future forecast
1. Crude oil: crude oil fundamentals are weak. Although the United States proposed economic stimulus plan, overseas health events are not optimistic. Oil prices continue to be under pressure.
2. Market: the downstream operating rate has declined, and the demand for pure benzene is difficult to improve. The low price of hydrogenated benzene impacts the pure benzene market. In addition, the pure benzene plant is willing to increase the load, so the inventory pressure will increase.
The contradiction between supply and demand has increased, the short-term market is difficult to get a substantial improvement, and the price of pure benzene is still possible to be lowered.
| EDTA 2Na |