1、 Spot market of asphalt this week
As of March 20, the average market price of national road asphalt was 2547 yuan / ton, down 297 yuan / ton from 2844 yuan / ton last week, down 10.44%. This week, the domestic road asphalt market price continued to decline sharply, mainly due to the strong negative international news, leading to the continuous downward exploration of the crude oil futures market, even touching the $20 pass. In this context, it is difficult to establish a buying atmosphere for downstream operators in the asphalt market, and the impact of low price resources is strong, leading to the continuous decline of transaction price. However, the single-day increase of oil price on Thursday has been in recent years Most of all, the low-end price of asphalt has rebounded, especially in Shandong and North China.
| Benzalkonium chloride |
2、 Supply and demand analysis
Demand: it is expected that part of the short-term areas will still be affected by rainfall, especially in the southeast of Northwest China, Chongqing, eastern Guizhou, northwest and Southeast Yunnan, central and Western Jiangnan, and most of South China. Among them, the coastal area in southwest Guangdong will encounter rainstorm, and the engineering infrastructure in the rest areas will grow steadily.
Inventory: according to the statistics of 64 major domestic road asphalt manufacturers, the total inventory / storage capacity ratio of major national asphalt manufacturers in the week ending March 20 was 44.84%, up 1.56% on a month on month basis. In the later stage of the market, the pressure on the short-term asphalt market price to keep rising is still unabated, and whether the conflict between Russia and Russia can be mediated is still pending, so the possibility of sharp decline of asphalt inventory in refineries is relatively low.
In terms of operation rate: according to the statistics of 64 major domestic road asphalt production enterprises, the comprehensive operation rate of domestic road asphalt production enterprises in the week ending March 20 was 46.66%, 1.2% higher than last week. In the later market, the momentum of the broad crude oil futures market continues to rise or is limited, and the refinery’s asphalt production profit is still at a high level, but the momentum of the asphalt spot price rise is relatively insufficient, and the support for the refinery’s inventory pressure slowing down is relatively weak, and the NDRC continues to reduce the expectation of gasoline and diesel is temporarily stranded, which does not exclude the possibility of partial Refineries or conversion of coking materials.
| Sodium Molybdate |
3、 This week’s Asphalt futures market and future prospects
This week, bu2006, the main oil asphalt contract, closed lower at 1940 yuan / ton, 178 yuan / ton lower than last week, with 6.23 million transactions and 420000 positions. At present, the spread of foreign social public events is still strong, and the inflection point is not yet coming, which will lead to the decline of crude oil demand is difficult to improve. However, the current industry will focus on whether the conflict between Russia and Russia can be mediated, and whether Saudi Arabia is willing to cancel the production increase remains to be seen. If the production increase is cancelled, the crude oil is expected to climb to the 40-50 range in the future, but if the production increase is continued, the possibility of the original price falling below $20 will be greatly increased. Attention should be paid to the pressure of sharp fluctuation of short-term crude oil price, especially under the continuous outbreak of social public events, the pessimistic atmosphere of investors enveloped the market, and it is expected that the demand for crude oil in the future will be bleak. In addition, the “crude oil price war” between Saudi Arabia and Russia will continue, so the oil price will remain low. The domestic social public event control superimposed considerable spot profits, which led to the continuous recovery of asphalt refinery operation rate, but the downstream construction started less, and the recovery progress was slow in some areas or affected by rain, the sharp drop of crude oil seriously affected the traders’ ordering mentality, the spot market trading was light, some refineries began to significantly reduce the spot price, and the social inventory was still accumulating rapidly. In this context, the domestic road asphalt market price continues to decline and is expected to remain. Investors who hold positions need to keep a close eye on the development trend of social public events and international crude oil situation, and do a good job in cash management to deal with future uncertainty.
| http://www.lubonchem.com/ |