1、 Price trend
According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc market plummeted on Sunday, and the zinc price fell 7.31% on the 19th. As of March 19, the spot price of zinc was 14530.00 yuan / ton, down 8.88% from 15946.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and up 7.31% on March 19. Panic in the international market spread to China, and spot zinc prices fell sharply.
2、 Market trend analysis
Fitch lowered its forecast for zinc price this year
Fitch solution, an industry consultancy, lowered its forecast for zinc prices this year to $2250 a tonne from $2450 a tonne earlier, with factories in China and the rest of the world shutting down more at this stage. At the same time, the agency said that the processing cost of zinc concentrate has been increasing throughout 2019 and 2020 (in the supply contract), and the increase in the processing cost of zinc concentrate has encouraged Chinese zinc smelters to increase production in the second half of this year, which may lead to a reduction of market supply shortage. In the case of limited demand, zinc inventory increased significantly, leading to a decline in optimism among market participants. The upward momentum of zinc price weakened and the downward pressure increased.
| Benzalkonium chloride |
International zinc price fell for several days in a row
The price of zinc in LME market fell sharply for three consecutive days. On March 18, the price of zinc fell to 1819 US dollars / ton. The fall of international zinc price has a negative impact on domestic zinc price. The negative pressure of zinc is increasing.
The monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in February hit a new low since January last year
The monthly retail sales rate in the United States recorded – 0.5% in February, with an expected value of 0.2%. The previous value was revised up from 0.3% to 0.6%, and the monthly rate data hit a new low since January last year. Analysts expect a surge in grocery purchases in March, but in April it will be bad. The fall in U.S. consumption reflects the weak global consumption environment this year, the global economic downturn and the expected sharp decline in zinc demand. After the zinc market, the negative market increased.
Domestic zinc output from January to February
China’s zinc production in January February was 1.04 million tons, up 12.9% year-on-year, according to data released by the National Bureau of statistics on Tuesday. The high cost of zinc processing in China has made zinc smelting enterprises more active in production, increased supply of zinc market and increased zinc inventory.
| Sodium selenite |
The delivery service fee standard of multiple domestic futures is adjusted to 0
The previous exchange also announced that from April 10, 2020 to January 8, 2021, the delivery service charge standard of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, screw steel, wire rod, hot rolled coil, stainless steel, gold, silver, natural rubber, paper pulp, fuel oil and petroleum asphalt futures will be temporarily adjusted to 0.
3、 Future prospects
Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at business club, believes that although all countries have certain economic stimulus plans in the near future, the repeated circuit breakers in the stock market reflect that the economic stimulus plan has not brought much confidence to the market, and the global market demand is expected to decline sharply in 2020. For the zinc market, the price of zinc in the international market has dropped sharply for several consecutive days, and the negative pressure on the domestic zinc market continues to increase; however, under the condition of a sharp decline in demand expectation, the domestic zinc ingot production has not declined correspondingly. On the contrary, in January February, when most downstream customers stopped production, the domestic zinc ingot production has increased by 12.9% year on year. Under the condition of insufficient demand, the supply has increased, and the zinc ingot price has increased It is inevitable that things will fall. However, such a sharp decline on the 19th is still rare in the history of zinc market, and the increase in supply is only one factor. The fear of global market demand in the future is the main cause of zinc price falling to the end.
| Stannous Sulphate |