1、 Trend analysis
According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the cobalt price fell precipitously this week, and the market speculation of the cobalt market continued. As of February 29, the price of cobalt was 258833.33 yuan / ton, down 4.90% compared with the average price of 272166.66 yuan / ton at the end of last week. This week, the panic mentality of cobalt market spread, and the price of cobalt fell off the cliff.
2、 The global stock market suffered an epic slump
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The global market fell after a brief surge in January, and the U.S. stock market fell after hitting a new high in mid February. If the United States takes new year’s day as a starting point, by the end of March 12, the U.S. and European stock markets generally fell by more than 20%. The U.S. stock market broke twice in a week last week for the first time. On March 12, according to incomplete statistics, the stock markets of Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea, Pakistan, Indonesia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, Colombia, Sri Lanka and other 10 countries broke down. The global stock market plummeted, hitting the confidence of the global economic market greatly. The cobalt market also suffered from the plummeting attack. The panic spread. The confidence of the rising cobalt market was insufficient, and the pressure of the falling cobalt price was great.
3、 Mobile phone sales halved in February
According to the data released by China Academy of communications, in February 2020, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market was 6.384 million, a year-on-year decrease of 56.0%. From January to February 2020, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market was 27.197 million, a year-on-year decrease of 44.0%. In the first two months of 2020, the sales volume of domestic mobile phones halved. Although the country vigorously promoted 5g reduction, 5g is not perfect at this stage and can not replace 4G, and the demand for 5g has increased, but it is difficult to offset the decline of mobile phone market. The overall mobile phone market is relatively cold, the demand for mobile phones in a short period of time is good and limited, and the demand for cobalt market is negative, and the demand for cobalt Market in the future is under great pressure.
4、 International cobalt price trend
According to the trend of the LME market cobalt price last week, it can be seen that the LME cobalt price fell precipitously last week, the bearish attitude of the cobalt market rose, the international cobalt market was more bearish, and the domestic cobalt market was bearish.
5、 Sales of new energy passenger vehicles fell sharply
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According to the data of China Automobile Association, in February, the total output of China’s new energy vehicle market was 9951, down 77.3% month on month, down 82.9% year on year; the total sales volume reached 12908, down 72.4% month on month, down 75.2% year on year. From January to February, the cumulative output of new energy vehicle market was 53840, down 63.8% year on year; the cumulative sales volume reached 59705, down 59.5% year on year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles fell sharply, which led to a significant reduction in the demand for cobalt and a large negative impact on the cobalt market. In the future, the expected demand for cobalt decreased, the positive effect of the cobalt Market weakened, and the negative effect increased.
6、 Future prospects
According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of business club, from the perspective of demand, the demand of cobalt market declined significantly in February, and the production and sales of mobile phone manufacturers cut short, which was bad for cobalt Market; the production and sales of new energy vehicles almost fell to the ground, and the demand for cobalt market was even colder. The objective demand reduction is bad for the cobalt market, and the cobalt price has lost the support of rising power. With the improvement of China’s domestic economy, the cobalt market should have risen with the good news. However, the epic collapse of the international stock market has hit the confidence of the market, the fear of the global economic crisis and the spread of economic weakness, which have severely hit the confidence of the cobalt market. After the demand of the cobalt market, it is expected to fall sharply. In the short term, the pressure of the decline of the cobalt market is great. In the long term, 5g can still bring new demand for the cobalt market Energy vehicles are still an irresistible trend in the future, and there is still room for the long-term cobalt market to rise. However, the poor performance of the global economic environment has delayed the improvement of the cobalt Market and delayed the rise cycle of the cobalt market.
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