1、 Price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market declined significantly. On March 5, the average price of the domestic methanol market was 1992 yuan / ton. As of March 12, the average price of the domestic methanol market was 1872 yuan / ton, down 6.02%. Prices fell 12.81% month on month and 27.20% year on year.
2、 Market analysis
Products: the domestic methanol market is mainly weak, and the methanol market in some regions continues to decline. Port methanol market is linked to in maintenance period, which is still affected by crude oil to some extent. After the price rebounds, it slightly falls back. Spot buying is relatively common. In the short term, we need to pay attention to the change of port inventory. In terms of the mainland market, the overall trading atmosphere is weak, and most regions show a downward trend. Prices in the northwest and southwest regions are temporarily stable, among which the local government in the southwest region has increased the work of resumption of production, and the earlier stage of downstream procurement intersection has slightly improved.
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In terms of freight, the freight of methanol market has declined. For the part from north line to North Shandong, the reference is 90-140 yuan / ton, including 130-140 yuan / ton for Daqi to North Shandong, 90-110 yuan / ton for mainland to North Shandong; 130-160 yuan / ton for South line to North Shandong; 100-150 yuan / ton for Guanzhong to North Shandong, 100-120 yuan / ton for South Shandong, 150 yuan / ton for part Lianyungang; 70-150 yuan / ton for Shanxi to North Shandong. 180-210 yuan / ton from Ningxia to North Shandong.
Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market has a narrow range. Due to the fluctuation of methanol market in the upstream and the improvement of formaldehyde market, the demand follow-up in the downstream market is weak, which leads to the lower quotation in some areas of formaldehyde and the general transaction.
Acetic acid: the atmosphere of domestic acetic acid market is on the sidelines. Due to inventory problems, the prices quoted by Henan manufacturers are up and down. However, the market supply is sufficient, and the market transaction is still rational. The short-term market is in a wait-and-see state. Shandong Yankuang acetic acid plant is expected to stop this week to ease the situation of oversupply in the market. The resumption of work in the terminal industry is slow. The market in some areas is still weak. The acetic acid market atmosphere is waiting.
Dimethyl ether: the domestic market of dimethyl ether is weak, and the prices in some regions are adjusted flexibly. Henan Province, the main production area, has poor trading and low price. The mainstream price is 2770-2850 yuan / ton. There are signs of price reduction in Southwest China. The low-end price has dropped to 2750 yuan / ton, and market transactions continue to be weak.
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3、 Future forecast
From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, on the cost side: at present, the profits of enterprises are generally poor, and the cost support is fair under partial losses; at present, the price is relatively low, so it is not excluded that some of the middle and lower reaches copy the bottom and stock up. On the negative side, the supply side: some of the early-stage shutdown / load reduction devices have been recovered, and the supply side is relatively abundant; on the downstream side: Linyi formaldehyde resumption time is delayed, and at present, the overall receiving atmosphere in the downstream is poor, and the local demand side is hard to boost in a short term; freight: the recent freight continues to decline, and the arrival cost has been reduced. According to the methanol analysts of the business association, the short-term domestic methanol market is adjusted according to its own supply and demand, and there is still a decline expectation in some areas.
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