1、 Price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market this week fell in a narrow range. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2002 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it was 1980 yuan / ton, down 1.12% in the week, 10.20% on month, 22.29% on year.
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2、 Market analysis
Product: the domestic methanol market trend is narrow and low. Some enterprises have adjusted prices for many times, but the reduction is not large. Due to the current low freight, the consumer market has little resistance to the market. Affected by the decline of futures prices, the port market fluctuates and falls, and the shortage of storage capacity is unfavorable to the port trend. At present, the resumption of traditional downstream products is slow, and the start-up of formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE and other products is lower than before the Spring Festival, so it will take time for the market to recover slowly.
Industry chain: formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market is in light and stable operation. Only a few of the enterprises resumed the construction, and the overall construction was at a low level. The upstream methanol market was in a narrow range. Some formaldehyde enterprises purchased a small amount at a low level. The cost of the formaldehyde market has no impact. The downstream market is still at a low level. The overall recovery of the demand side is slow, and the transaction is light.
Acetic acid: after the previous period of continuous decline, the profit of acetic acid itself is small, and the short-term downstream substantial demand continues to be weak. It is expected that there will be signs of load increase after the start of acetic acid ester industry in the middle of the month. PTA industry starts to be stable in the short term, the short-term negative situation of acetic acid market is difficult to ease, and the passive weak situation continues, but the expected decline is narrow.
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Dimethyl ether: this week, the trading atmosphere of domestic dimethyl ether changed from weak to strong, and the main price showed signs of rising, but prices in some regions were adjusted flexibly. With the gradual return to work of the enterprise, the overall supply increases, while it is difficult to follow up the terminal demand, and the market supply is unbalanced, resulting in weak prices.
3、 Future forecast
From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, the traditional downstream gradually recovers; the domestic freight price is low, which is favorable for the price of the production area; the northwest MTO enterprise has the intention to store methanol which is currently lower than the cost price. On the negative side, the pace of factory resumption is significantly faster than that of downstream, and there is still pressure on market supply and demand; the pace of domestic infrastructure recovery is slow, and terminal demand is still weak. At present, the resumption of traditional downstream products is slow, and the commencement of formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE and other products are lower than before the Spring Festival, so there is limited space for methanol to rise. Based on the shutdown of most enterprises last week, the methanol analysts of the business club predict that the short-term domestic methanol market still has an inertial rise, and later needs to pay attention to the change of demand.
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