1、 Price trend
In February 2020, the butadiene market fell sharply. According to the monitoring of the business society, the price of butadiene at the beginning of the month was 8056 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month was 6223 yuan / ton, a 22.76% drop in the month, with a 33.41% drop in the price compared with the same period last year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Product: in February, the domestic butadiene market fell sharply. After the Spring Festival, the downstream construction was delayed and the logistics and transportation were stagnant. However, most butadiene plants maintained normal operation, the inventory in circulation was high, and the contradiction between market supply and demand worsened, dragging the market down rapidly. With the rapid decline of the market in the north, the downstream latex manufacturers in the middle and late ten days have resumed their work and recovered their logistics. The market in the North rebounded slightly after the stop of the decline, but there is no obvious price difference between the north and the south, the supply pressure in East China is difficult to be relieved, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market still exists, the market speculation is weak, the market quickly recovers weak, and the impact of public health events at the end of the month expands, which has an impact on the external market Market and commodity trends have brought drag, butadiene business is expected to be short in the future.
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In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s supply price of butadiene in East China decreased by 1700 yuan / ton to 6500 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; the price of North Huajin butadiene dropped by 2200 yuan / ton on a month on month basis with 5810 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; affected by cost and inventory pressure, Nanjing Chengzhi 100000 ton / year oxidation and dehydrogenation unit stopped on February 10, and it is expected to restart in early March; Inner Mongolia Jiutai’s listed price is 5800 yuan / ton, Compared with the previous month, the price of Shenhua Ningxia coal butadiene dropped by 2000 yuan / ton; compared with the previous month, the price of Shenhua Ningxia coal butadiene dropped by 1700 yuan / ton to 5420 yuan / ton; within the month, Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. maintained about 60% load operation of 200000 ton / year butadiene plant, and some qualified products were delivered to downstream contracts; Dalian Hengli 140000 ton / year butadiene plant operated stably within the month, and some goods were exported, with the price reference of 5760 yuan / ton by the end of the month.
In terms of industrial chain: SBR: in February, the domestic market price of SBR was significantly weaker. After the year, the downstream failed to return to the market on time, and there was a strong wait-and-see mood on the site; however, most of the styrene butadiene production enterprises operated stably, only the styrene butadiene plants such as Qilu and Yangzi reduced their load in a short time, and the inventory of the whole factory and traders were significantly higher, with a large inventory pressure. Local traders continued to resume work, but most of the terminal restart progress was slow, and some of the resumption enterprises first focused on the consumption of raw materials inventory, which was difficult to release demand, and limited changes in trading and investment.
Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, in February, the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market showed a sharp decline trend. Since the end of January, influenced by macro factors, and after the Spring Festival, the logistics and downstream have not recovered, and the trading in Shunding market tends to stagnate. Over time, there was no sign of recovery in the market. Upstream factories had overstocked inventory, and some warehouses were expanding. Affected by the control of logistics, some Shunding factories gradually reduced their load. After the middle of the year, the price of raw materials fell sharply, the stock pressure accumulated, and there was no sign of improvement in the downstream. Shunding market fell into a falling channel, and the supply price fell to a new low level in recent two years. With the price reaching a low point, some terminal factories returned to the market, the enthusiasm of middlemen for price collection increased, coupled with the strong support of Tianjiao, the market decline slightly slowed down.
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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in February 2020, there are 28 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 5.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities rising are sulfur (10.60%), hydrofluoric acid (8.40%) and fluorite (8.05%). There are 48 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 27 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 31% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are butadiene (- 22.76%), propane (- 21.45%) and hydrogen peroxide (- 18.21%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 2.53%.
3、 Future forecast
In the future, good news: the start-up of the synthetic rubber industry has not declined significantly; there is a certain rigid demand for spot goods in the latex industry. On the negative side, the supply of domestic manufacturers is stable, the inventory in the tank farm remains high, and the upstream and downstream links of the butadiene industry chain have certain inventory pressure. With the downstream industries returning to work one after another, retail investors have just needed or will bring some support to the market at the low price node. However, in terms of the supply side, at present, the social inventory is high, the external cargo is abundant, and the output of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Dalian Hengli is released stably, so the overall supply side of butadiene market is still under pressure. On the one hand, the short-term market is abundant in supply; on the other hand, it will take some time to digest the inventory of finished products and raw materials from the downstream to the upstream. Butadiene analysts of the business club predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market will remain weak in the first half of March. In the second half of March, they need to pay attention to the macro news impact on the recession and whether the terminal demand can bring the bottom support to the market.
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