1、 Trend analysis
According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of cobalt rose sharply and fell continuously in February, and the market speculation of cobalt continued. As of February 29, the price of cobalt was 273833.34 yuan / ton, down 0.36% from the average price of 274833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. In February, the price of cobalt rose and fell for many times, and the market of cobalt was adjusted.
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2、 Overview of good news and bad news
1. The Democratic Republic of Congo plans to control the artisanal cobalt industry
According to Reuters, the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo has announced ambitious plans to control the artisanal cobalt industry in the western part of the country. The DRC will establish a new state-owned company, the EGC cobalt enterprise, which will be granted a monopoly on the purchase and sale of cobalt from the informal sector. The regulation of artisanal cobalt production in the DRC is bound to have an impact on the price of cobalt. There is upward pressure on cobalt, which has a driving force for the price of metal cobalt in the future, and stimulates the price of cobalt to rise substantially.
2. ERG plans to suspend production at its Zambia copper and cobalt refinery
Joseph chewe, chairman of the Zambian miners’ Union, said on January 22 that the mining enterprise Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) plans to suspend the production of its Chambishi metals copper and cobalt refinery in Zambia for maintenance and repair. The reason for the shutdown is that it is difficult for the refinery to find raw materials. ERG did not immediately comment on the news. The capacity of Chambishi metals refinery is 6800 tons / year. The shutdown of refining cobalt plant will greatly affect the supply of metal cobalt, increase the driving force of cobalt price rise, and further stimulate the rise of cobalt price.
3. Tesla and Ningde times negotiate in depth: or use cobalt free batteries in domestic electric vehicles
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According to Reuters, Tesla is in-depth negotiations with Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Ningde times”, 300750) on the use of cobalt free batteries in electric vehicles of Shanghai Super factory. If it can be achieved, the amount of cobalt used in the domestic cobalt market will be greatly reduced, and the demand for cobalt will be negative, and the price of cobalt will begin to fall.
3、 International cobalt price trend
According to the trend of the LME market cobalt price in February, it can be seen that the international cobalt price rose sharply at the beginning of February, and then the cobalt price fell all the way, and the cobalt market lost the support of rising. The overall cobalt market was relatively bearish, which was negative for the domestic cobalt market.
4、 Wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles fell sharply in January
On February 13, the passenger Federation released data showing that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in January were 45000 units, down 51.3% year-on-year and 67% month on month. February witnessed the most significant impact of the outbreak. The original consumption rhythm of the Spring Festival was changed in an all-round way, and the automobile industry chain was in a full stop state. February is the recovery period of production and operation. At present, the recovery speed is slow. Most enterprises delay work and travel for more than a week, resulting in almost negligible retail sales in the first ten days of February.
5、 Domestic mobile phone shipments fell 38.9% year on year in January
According to the analysis report on the operation of the domestic mobile phone market in January 2020 released by China Academy of communications, the total shipment volume of the domestic mobile phone market in January was 20.813 million, down 38.9% year on year. According to forecasts released on Thursday by IDC, a market research firm, coronavirus is expected to have a negative impact on the global smartphone market in 2020, with sales down 2.3%. The sharp decline of mobile phone sales has a great negative impact on the cobalt market, and affected by the epidemic, the major domestic mobile phone manufacturers have lowered their expectations for 2020, which has a crash impact on the demand of the cobalt market, and the negative pressure in the future is large.
6、 Future prospects
Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, believes that after the Spring Festival, the international and domestic cobalt market has been getting good news and bad news, which has stimulated the domestic cobalt price to rise and fall sharply. The situation of the cobalt market is turbulent, and how the future trend of the cobalt Market will cause concern. But from the perspective of the supply-demand relationship of cobalt market, the trend of cobalt price is relatively clear, and the future market of cobalt market is not worth worrying. From the supply side, Glencore has reduced its production, which is expected to affect 20% of the global cobalt supply. In 2020, the supply of cobalt market will be significantly reduced. In the DRC, more efforts will be made to regulate the artisanal mines, which will reduce the supply cost of cobalt, and the impact of the supply side will make the cobalt price continue to rise in the long term. From the demand side, at this stage, new energy vehicles and mobile phones are affected by the epidemic In the future, the country is increasing 5g investment, the sales volume of 5g mobile phones is growing rapidly, and the market’s attention to 5g continues to increase. It is expected that the sales volume of mobile phones will gradually recover and grow in the second half of the year. Generally speaking, at this stage, the supply and demand of cobalt market are both declining, and the rising power of cobalt market is insufficient. At the same time, due to the continuous increase of cobalt cost, the falling space of cobalt price is narrowed, and the falling pressure of cobalt market is insufficient. In the short term, the cobalt market is mainly subject to shock adjustment. In the long run, the demand of cobalt market is still worth looking forward to, there is still an upward momentum in the cobalt market, and the spot cobalt price is still at a low level. However, affected by the epidemic situation, the increase space of cobalt price in 2020 will be reduced, so it is not suitable to pursue high cobalt price.
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