1、 Price trend
The domestic BDO market continued to wait and see. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of February 21, the average price of the domestic BDO market was 9950 yuan / ton, up 1.57% month on month, up 5.64% year on year.
2、 Market analysis
| ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate) |
Product: the domestic BDO market continues to run light this week. Crane coal shut down on February 17 due to the fault, and Meike phase III shut down. The overall start-up was maintained at about 54.4%, down from last week. At the same time, the production enterprises mostly wait for the downstream start-up to adjust the start-up control inventory. The main downstream PBT and PTMEG are still at a low level, and other downstream production is slow to resume. In addition, long-distance transportation is difficult to recover effectively in a short period of time, the factory inventory is under pressure, and the shipment is difficult. Although there are a small number of orders, due to the sluggish terminal demand, the transportation is still limited, and the actual single trading is weak. With high inventory, most downstream stocks are expected to be bearish, and the game between supply and demand is still a major concern at present. Since the 17th, the road has been exempted from vehicle tolls, but in view of the restrictions on construction and transportation in some areas, the attitude of the operators is more negative.
In terms of equipment, this week, Heci stopped due to air separation unit failure on February 17, and the restart time was not determined; Kaixiang load dropped to 70%; Meike phase III stopped, and phase I and phase II units operated stably; Tianye phase I 30000 ton units operated normally, The restart time of other devices is to be determined; the current load of Dongyuan is 40%; the first phase of Tunhe river is shut down, the second phase is 5-60%; the load of Shaanxi chemical industry is 60%; the load of new industry is stable to 4.3%; the load of Guotai is heard to be 6-70%. The overall market operating rate this week is around 54.4%. (domestic production capacity increases by 60000 tons / year for Shaanxi black cat and Xinjiang new industry, 100000 tons / year for Tunhe phase II, and 30000 tons / year for Shaanxi chemical and Yizheng Dalian long-term parking)
Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, the market of methanol and methanol rose partially, and the trading atmosphere improved. The main transaction price in Inner Mongolia increased to 1500-1550 yuan / ton, the shipment was relatively smooth, the logistics and transportation gradually recovered, and the starting load of downstream olefin plants also increased. The centralized price of enterprises in Guanzhong region is 1500-1600 yuan / ton, and the low-end transaction is good. Ningxia, Xinjiang and other regions rose in the week, mainly supplying olefins. In terms of equipment, Baoji Changqing plans to raise the load to 80% for operation, while other load reduction enterprises have no new adjustment. At present, part of the industry has copied the bottom and entered the market, and the factory has a strong mentality.
| Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent) |
Calcium carbide: this week, the domestic calcium carbide market showed regional uneven rise and fall, which was mainly caused by the different arrival conditions of different parts of the transportation recovery. This week, the ex factory price in Wuhai area was increased by 50-100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream ex factory price this week was 2750-2800 yuan / ton. However, recently, the delivery was slow, and the production enterprises have a backlog of inventory. The main reason is that the arrival volume of downstream PVC purchasing enterprises keeps increasing, and the policy of high-speed fee free also reduces part of the transportation cost, and the purchasing enterprises reduce their mentality. And the downstream PVC high storage pressure, the price is weak and difficult to change, control cost expenditure, calcium carbide price is difficult to have high price support. However, the price of upstream Lancan began to rise this week, with an increase of 30-50 yuan / ton. It is expected that the trend of carbide market will be initially lowered next week, and the number of trucks to be unloaded will continue to increase.
3、 Future forecast
This week, although the factory reduced the load, but the inventory has accumulated more than one month, and the low-level construction of each downstream, short-term replenishment demand is very small. Under the pressure of high inventory, manufacturers are in a state of mind of storing and shipping, but they are in a weak position in terms of receiving orders in essence, and most of the lower reaches have more bearish expectations, so they have strong resistance to high prices. Although the downstream construction and transportation have slightly improved, the contradiction between supply and demand is still intensifying. BDO analysts of business cooperatives predict that the domestic BDO market is still stable in the short term. In the long term, there is no excluding the risk of a downturn. Specifically, pay attention to the downstream resumption and transportation progress.
| povidone Iodine |