1、 Price trend
According to the data in the business club’s large list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 1890 yuan / ton on February 10, 1916 yuan / ton on February 15, and the price rose 1.41% this week. On February 15, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 64.16, unchanged from yesterday, down 36.37% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and up 3.33% from the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
According to the data in the business club’s large scale list, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on February 10 was 2200 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on February 15 was 2200 yuan / ton. The price remained stable this week. The diammonium phosphate commodity index on February 15 was 65.62, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new low in the cycle, 36.28% lower than the highest point of 102.98 on October 8, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
2、 Market analysis
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Monoammonium phosphate: the price of monoammonium phosphate rose this week, and the operating rate of enterprises was about 40%. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui Province is 1850 yuan, 2000 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1850-2000 yuan / ton, and that of 60% mainstream powdered ammonium is 2000-2150 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation, and 55% of ammonium powder has been quoted at about 1850 yuan / ton, with stable start-up. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1900-2050 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1950 yuan / ton.
Diammonium phosphate: this week, diammonium phosphate has been running steadily, with an operating rate of about 40%. At present, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2200-2350 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Shandong Province 2250-2350 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2300-2450 yuan / ton, and 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Anhui Province 2300-2450 yuan / ton.
Industry chain: at present, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole is still shut down and shut down, the start-up of enterprises is still low, the market atmosphere is light, the transaction has not yet recovered, the market demand starts slowly, many mines delay the start-up to about 15, and the enterprises in production do a proper amount of inventory. At present, the market prices of phosphorus ore in various places are basically examined before the year, and the current market is waiting to be sorted and operated. After, the start-up of liquid ammonia enterprises was generally delayed, the market entered a window period, few dealers entered the market, and generally fell into a closed state. In addition, affected by traffic, the transportation of liquid ammonia also entered a bottleneck period, resulting in a sharp drop in the price of liquid ammonia after the year.
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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the sixth week of 2020 (2.10-2.14), there are 16 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector. The top three commodities rising are dichloromethane (5.00%), polyaluminium chloride (3.54%) and propane (3.38%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are butadiene (- 13.52%), propylene oxide (- 5.11%) and liquid ammonia (- 4.89%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.
3、 Future forecast
According to analysts of business agency ammonium phosphate, the current operating rate of Monoammonium is down, the supply of goods is insufficient, and the price of enterprises is up. Affected by the transportation, the freight is high, DAP enterprises temporarily maintain the price before saving, and more early orders are executed. It is expected that in the later stage, the monoammonium market is still likely to rise, and the overall trend of diammonium is mainly stable.
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