1、 Price data
According to the latest monitoring data of the business association, the average price of the main market of 180CST fuel oil in China as of January 31 was 5030.00 yuan / ton, up and down 9.87% compared with 4578.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.
| EDTA |
On January 31, the fuel oil commodity index was 101.87, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.11% from 115.91 (October 17, 2018), the highest point in the cycle, and up 121.07% from 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Product: the price of domestic fuel oil rose sharply this month, with low inventory. The mainstream price at the end of the month was about 5100 yuan / ton. On January 31, the spot price of Singapore fuel oil (high sulfur 380cst) was 284.76 US dollars / ton, down 9.83 US dollars / ton compared with the previous day (converted to 1972 yuan / ton at the RMB exchange rate of that day). According to data released by ESG, the stock of residual fuel oil (excluding asphalt) in Singapore increased by 737000 barrels to 22355000 barrels in the week ended January 29, including fuel oil and low sulfur and waxy residual oil; the stock of light distillate oil increased by 84000 barrels to 13005600 barrels; the stock of medium distillate oil increased by 389000 barrels to 11212000 barrels.
Industry chain: according to the monitoring of business agency, WTI crude oil in the United States at the beginning of the month is 61.68 USD / barrel, 58.54 USD / barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of – 5.09%; Brent crude oil at the beginning of the month is 68.44 USD / barrel, with a monthly increase or decrease of – 5.25% at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of – 5.09%. At the beginning of the month, the tense situation in Iran and the rapid rise of international oil price, however, with Trump’s comments easing, the international crude oil price fell sharply. In the following two weeks, the long and short factors of the international crude oil market were intertwined, and there was no decisive factor for the time being. The sharp increase in fuel oil this month is mainly due to the tight supply of low sulfur asphalt and residual oil, the sharp increase in price, and the price difference in domestic trade and foreign trade ship fuel market.
| Melamine |
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 8 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in January 2020, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities with an increase are fuel oil (9.87%), methanol (9.12%) and dimethyl ether (7.17%). There are 7 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are liquefied natural gas (- 17.45%), Brent crude oil (- 5.25%) and WTI crude oil (- 5.09%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 0.77%.
3、 Future forecast
Energy analysts of business club think that logistics is greatly limited due to a series of factors such as Spring Festival. At present, it is expected to recover after February 10. It is expected that the fuel oil market price in February will fall slightly, and the price range may be 4900-5100 yuan / ton.
| EDTA 2Na |