On February 4, the PX commodity index was 54.00, flat with yesterday, 47.27% lower than 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 18.55% higher than 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).
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According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is significantly lower, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi is started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai is started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant is overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX plant is put into operation, other units are temporarily stable, and domestic p-xylene plant is opened The working rate is about 70%, and the domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal. However, in the near future, the price of crude oil has fallen sharply, and the market price of p-xylene has fallen sharply. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On February 4, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia dropped by 4 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 710-712 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 730-732 US dollars / ton CFR in China. About 50% of domestic products need to be imported. The sharp decline of external market price has a certain negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the price trend of p-xylene market has declined.
Recently, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell to US $49.61/barrel, or US $0.50, while Brent crude oil futures fell to US $53.96/barrel, or US $0.49. The oil market has not escaped this round of Black Swan – after another round of big fall, crude oil inevitably entered the bear market. The pattern of oversupply originally depressed the price of crude oil. However, the sudden outbreak has further increased the concern of global energy demand. Now, Saudi Arabia has been unable to sit still. The news that OPEC is planning to cut production is frequently heard in the market. However, the oil price is still “falling constantly”. Whether this measure of reducing production can work, it may also be said that the decline of crude oil price is bad for domestic chemical prices, and the domestic price trend of p-xylene is significantly lower.
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In terms of raw material PTA, the recent price has dropped sharply to the level of 4300-4400 yuan / ton. At present, the PTA processing fee has dropped to about 50 yuan / ton, and the processing fee before the festival is nearly 600 yuan / ton. The new production capacity before the festival is put into use, and the current operating rate remains high. During the Spring Festival, the accumulated inventory is obvious, the social inventory is increased by nearly 30% compared with that before the festival, and the light transaction price in the spot market has fallen down. Affected by the epidemic situation, the downstream construction is postponed Later, in addition to the limited logistics, the unsmooth transportation of the industrial chain leads to the accumulation of inventory. In the future, the downstream textile will face the situation of delayed production or even contract breaking of orders. The downstream demand of PTA will worsen, the market price of PTA will fall sharply, and the price trend of p-xylene will decline.
In the near future, crude oil prices have fallen sharply, which has a certain negative impact on the xylene market. In addition, the downstream demand of the terminal has not improved significantly. Business analysts believe that PX market price may remain low.
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