At the beginning of January, the market of polycrystalline silicon was explored in a small range, and it operated stably in the middle and late ten days

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, in January, the trend of domestic polysilicon was not changed much compared with that of the previous month. Before the market accepted the trend at the beginning of the month, it went down with the trend, and then stopped falling, but did not usher in an increase. According to the monitoring, the monthly decline was 1.18%. The market stalemate is mainly stable, and the purchase volume of the downstream before the festival has not increased, mainly due to the influence of the light atmosphere around the Spring Festival. Before that, most of the enterprises have signed the bill. At the end of the month, the market price has no market, and the supply pressure has eased slightly. As of January 31, the average external quotation of the enterprises was 52000-56000 yuan / ton, and the current price has dropped about 20% compared with the previous year. At present, the domestic single crystal is still stable, the price range of compact material is 680-700 million yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystalline is not much different from that of last month.

2、 Market analysis

From the perspective of market supply and demand, the supply pressure is still moderate. In January, 12 polysilicon production enterprises mainly operated normally with partial load reduction. According to the production plan of each enterprise, the enterprise’s inventory control was effective and did not form a huge social inventory pressure. In addition, the two enterprises in South Korea shut down production for maintenance in January and February, and the domestic import volume will be reduced accordingly, which also slowed down the domestic supply pressure to some extent. From the comparison of monocrystal and polycrystal, the performance of monocrystal silicon is slightly better than polycrystal silicon, which occupies part of the demand of polycrystal silicon. The growth of monocrystal production is still continuing, and the demand is increasing. According to the situation of manufacturers, in polysilicon enterprises, after the order signing year, the market purchase volume has increased slightly. Although the price remains low, the order has increased significantly. On the other hand, the single crystal inventory of silicon material enterprises has been completely digested during the low price period of the market a few weeks ago, and there is no more supply pressure, so the price of single crystal has not been shaken, the downward pressure of polycrystalline silicon has also been eased, and the market is rigid and stable.

Let’s take a look at the demand: since January 2020, polysilicon demand has remained rigid and stable, and the price has stabilized. Most of the orders in the downstream before the festival are placed in advance, and most of the orders are signed in February. The transaction price of some enterprises shows a slight recovery. On the one hand, due to the rigid demand in the downstream, the purchasing base gas at the end of the lunar year, and the polysilicon operation rate has increased to 100%, which also confirms the following The improvement of travel demand is not entirely optimistic, which is inseparable from the Spring Festival procurement peak. The downstream stock up is completed. The previous expectation is that the enterprise will gradually accumulate the stock after the festival, but at present, affected by the epidemic situation, the enterprise starts a little late, the stock pressure may not be too large, and the downstream consumption of polycrystalline will slow down. It is expected that the market will be empty in the first ten days of February Window period.

3、 Future forecast

In the future, business analysts believe that the price of polysilicon is expected to be mainly stable. Since the enterprise has not started yet, the inventory pressure is not great. The order was full before this year, and the enterprise’s operating rate will reach the freezing point after the festival, and the downstream order may be reduced. However, with the recovery of downstream demand after the outbreak, polysilicon market may pick up.