1、 Price trend
This week, the domestic liquefied gas market continued to be weak, with the main downward trend. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market was 4566.67 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average price was 4400 yuan / ton, down 3.65% in the week, with the price rising 3.53% compared with the same period last year.
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2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Product: the domestic liquefied gas market fell continuously this week, with general trading atmosphere. As of January 17. The price of LPG from Sinopec Guangzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4450 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Jingmen Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4650 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4420 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4400 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shijiazhuang Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4400 yuan / ton Luoyang Petrochemical liquefied gas factory price is 4500 yuan / ton.
This week, China’s overall liquefied gas cut. International crude oil fell this week, playing a negative role in the liquefied gas market, affecting the market mentality. As the Spring Festival approaches, manufacturers need to store and arrange before the festival. At the beginning of the week, the market transaction atmosphere is relatively light, and prices continue to fall. With the price falling low, downstream bargain hunting to replenish the market, the weekend market trading atmosphere slightly improved, and the market decline slowed down. There is no obvious change in the terminal demand, but the demand for replenishment and storage in the downstream before the festival.
Saudi Aramco’s January CP reported a sharp rise in both propylene and butane. Propane rose to $565 / T, up $125 / T from last month, and butane to $590 / T, up $135 / T from last month.
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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the second week of 2020 (1.13-1.17), there are four kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, the top three commodities are methanol (3.43%), dimethyl ether (2.98%) and liquefied natural gas (0.76%). There are 7 commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products falling were liquefied gas (- 3.65%), petroleum coke (- 3.42%) and naphtha (- 1.80%). This week’s average was – 0.33%.
3、 Future forecast
As the Spring Festival approaches, manufacturers need to store, arrange and ship goods continuously. At present, with the price reduction, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry has improved, the manufacturer’s shipment has also improved, and the overall sales volume has increased, but the demand for inventory and inventory is still there. In February, CP price is expected to fall, the international market trend is weak, and the support for liquefied gas market is limited. It is expected that if there is no obvious positive in the short term, there is still the possibility of falling.
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