On January 13, China Petroleum Group Institute of economics and technology, a national high-end think tank, held a press conference on the development report of domestic and foreign oil and gas industries in 2019 in Beijing. According to the report, in 2019, the total refining capacity will rise to 860 million tons / year, while the total ethylene capacity will break through 30 million tons / year for the first time, and the excess refining capacity will become increasingly fierce. According to the current projects under construction and approved for construction and planning, China’s refining capacity will rise to 1.02 billion tons / year in 2025, and its ethylene capacity will exceed 50 million tons / year, ranking first in the world in terms of both surpassing the United States.
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Based on the comprehensive analysis of the development mode of oil and gas industry at home and abroad in 2019, the report considers that there are several characteristics:
domestic
Domestic oil production has stopped falling and picked up, and the rapid increase of oil and gas dependence on foreign countries has been curbed. The situation of domestic exploration and development has improved. In 2019, crude oil production reversed its downward trend for several consecutive years, reaching 191 million tons, an increase of 1.1%; natural gas production is estimated to reach 173.8 billion cubic meters, an increase of 9.8%. Although domestic oil and gas dependence on foreign countries is still rising, the momentum of rapid increase has been curbed.
The domestic oil and gas production is expected to reach 194 million tons and 190 billion cubic meters respectively in 2020. In addition, with the implementation of the national policy of developing clean coal, replacing oil with more energy, and increasing the proportion of terminal power consumption, the external dependence of oil and gas will increase steadily and slowly.
China’s refined oil consumption has entered the stage of medium and low-speed growth, and the pressure of refined oil export continues to increase. In 2019, the dependence of crude oil and oil on foreign countries will double to 70%. The growth rate of domestic consumption of gasoline, diesel and coal products will slow down for various reasons, and the pressure on the export of oil products will increase. In 2020, it is expected that the growth rate of domestic refined oil demand will continue to slow down, the refining capacity will continue to increase, the supply will continue to be surplus, and the net export of refined oil may exceed 60 million tons, surpassing South Korea to become the largest exporter of refined oil in the Asia Pacific region.
New progress has been made in the construction of natural gas production, supply, storage and marketing system. In 2019, the growth rate of China’s natural gas production was 9.6%, exceeding the growth rate of import, and the degree of foreign dependence was basically the same as that of the previous year. Significant progress has been made in China’s key projects of natural gas infrastructure interconnection, LNG receiving capacity and peak shaving capacity of gas storage. The market-oriented reform of natural gas has been steadily promoted, and the capacity of domestic natural gas safety and supply assurance has been significantly improved. In 2020 and later, with the expansion of China’s natural gas market and the continuous improvement of the degree of marketization, the construction of natural gas production, supply, storage and marketing system still needs to be continuously improved to further improve the efficiency of resource allocation and supply guarantee capacity.
The excess refining energy tends to be heavy and has the potential to expand to the low-end downstream of refining and chemical integration. In 2019, the total refining capacity will rise to 860 million tons / year, and the total ethylene capacity will break through 30 million tons / year for the first time. The excess refining capacity will become more and more severe. According to the current projects under construction and approved for construction and planning, China’s refining capacity will rise to 1.02 billion tons / year in 2025, and its ethylene capacity will exceed 50 million tons / year, ranking first in the world in terms of both surpassing the United States.
Strategic breakthroughs have been made in international oil and gas cooperation. In 2019, the natural gas pipeline of China Russia east line will take five years to complete and ventilate, and the natural gas from Russia will connect with the main consumer market of Northeast China, Beijing Tianjin Hebei and Yangtze River Delta; Sinopec, Guanghui energy, new Austria energy and other enterprises will sign a number of long-term LNG supply contracts. The main consumption market of natural gas in the east of China has formed a multi source competition pattern.
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The market-oriented reform process of the oil and gas industry has been significantly accelerated. In 2019, the government departments issued a number of policies around the implementation of several opinions on deepening the reform of the oil and gas system to promote the full opening of the oil and gas industry. At the same time, we will comprehensively promote the competitive transfer of mining rights; reform the operation mechanism of oil and gas pipeline network, control the two ends of the middle and open up, deepen the reform of oil and gas price formation mechanism, and strengthen market supervision. The reform of oil and gas industry system and mechanism has broken the original industry barriers, and the implementation of the new policy will further promote the process of marketization.
international
Exerting influence on the global oil and gas market has become an important starting point for the us to carry out the strategy of “US priority”. With the help of energy independence, the United States has strengthened its control and influence over the global oil market. OPEC’s internal cohesion and overall influence declined, and Qatar and Ecuador withdrew successively. Considering comprehensively, although geopolitical factors may lead to short-term and local supply tension and induce price fluctuations, the supply and demand fundamentals do not support the obvious rise of international oil prices.
Global natural gas supply and demand continue to ease. In 2019, the global natural gas trade grew by 9.1%, basically the same as the previous year, and the LNG trade grew by 12.2%, close to twice the growth rate of pipeline gas trade. The linkage of Eurasian market is prominent, and the European NBP price and the Asian LNG spot average price have all declined by about 40%. It is expected that in 2020, global natural gas supply and demand will continue to be relaxed, prices will remain low, and the game between supply and demand sides, traditional and emerging countries will continue to intensify.
The report predicts that in 2020, the global economic trend will remain weak, and the international oil price will maintain a volatile trend. The average Brent crude oil price range is 60-65 USD / barrel. For the unstable global macroeconomic and political situation, especially the trade disputes between the United States and major economies, and the greater uncertainty of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, it is also possible that the average annual level of international oil prices will fall below 50 US dollars per barrel or rise above 75 US dollars per barrel.
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