1、 Price trend:
On January 11, crude benzene commodity index was 74.72, unchanged from yesterday, down 43.33% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 90.37% from 39.25, the lowest point on December 22, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).
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2、 Market analysis:
This week (1.06-11.10) the domestic crude benzene market was raised. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 4735 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week was 4771.67 yuan / ton, up 0.77%.
Domestic market: this week’s pure benzene port inventory slightly lower than last week. At the beginning of the week, affected by the situation in the Middle East, the oil price soared, driving the price of pure benzene to rise in the external market and the domestic market to rise. Crude benzene rose to 4650-4700 yuan / ton as of Friday, up 50 yuan / ton compared with last week. In the near future, the downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises have started relatively stable operation, with the operating rate slightly increased to about 60%, and the demand for crude benzene is stable.
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Industry chain: this week’s oil price shows a parabola trend, which goes down for four consecutive days after Monday’s big rise. Earlier this week, oil prices rose as concerns about the supply or decline of crude oil increased as tensions in the Middle East escalated last week. Later, oil prices fell sharply due to an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories and signs of easing in the Middle East. WTI fell by 6.1% and Brent by 2.8% compared with January 3; pure benzene: Port inventory of pure benzene decreased slightly this week compared with last week. Affected by the situation in the Middle East at the beginning of the week, oil prices soared, driving the price of pure benzene up in the external market and the domestic market. However, in the later period, the oil price plummeted and the support surface weakened. In addition, the downstream trading has been light and the profit is insufficient, so the market fell back. Downstream: this week, styrene market is in a narrow range of volatility consolidation trend. The arrival of styrene in the main port increased. Generally speaking, the styrene market was forced to stay short this week, with a trading deadlock, up 1.17% compared with last Friday. In the lower reaches of Shandong Province, aniline enterprises competed for shipment, and Jinling reduced 100 yuan / ton, or 0.52%. The upstream pure benzene price is still high, the downstream demand is light, and the profits of aniline enterprises are in deficit.
3、 Trend Forecast:
At present, the external market of pure benzene has a limited boost, crude oil returns to the previous level, the follow-up direction is unclear, the winter transportation is more difficult, the north is snowy, the transportation is limited, the North resources are difficult to enter East China for arbitrage, the freight price increases and other adverse factors are more, the downstream demand of crude benzene is stable, the crude benzene market before the budget savings is mainly consolidated, and it is difficult to have large fluctuations.
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