1、 Price trend:
According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the ABS market in December was relatively strong, and the spot price in the domestic market recovered. As of December 31, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 13000.00 yuan / ton, up 3.45% from the beginning of the month.
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2、 Analysis of influencing factors:
Industry chain: ABS upstream, styrene prices fell in a narrow range this month. At the end of December, there were ships from the Middle East arriving at the port, and the stocks of styrene port in East China were on the high side. However, the port delivery decline rate is less than expected, which brings supply to styrene supply in the site. It is expected that the arrival of styrene in January will still be large before the middle of the month, and the port inventory is expected to continue to rise. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, the enthusiasm for receiving goods in the lower reaches of styrene may increase slightly, and the port delivery speed is expected to decline. Pure benzene is supported by the external market, and the possibility of a sharp drop in price in the short term is small. Although styrene is supported to a certain extent, the high price goods in the market are not well received. Generally speaking, the price of styrene is weak in the near future;
This month, the market of acrylonitrile related products in the spot market is relatively weak. At the beginning of the month, it was reported that the 210000t / a acrylonitrile unit of Anqing Petrochemical Company, which was originally scheduled to restart in mid December, was delayed to restart at the end of the month. There was a phased gap in the supply of raw materials for its contract customers, so it had to use the spot market as a supplement. There was periodic speculation in the market, and traders’ offer rose for a while. However, due to the supply of imported goods coming to Hong Kong, the supply side tended to be balanced, traders’ trading mostly gave way to low profits, and the offer returned to prudence;
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In December, the butadiene market was weak and declined. At the beginning of the month, affected by the news of TPC device accident in the United States, the Northeast manufacturer’s suspension of export, Shenhua Ningmei and Nanjing Chengzhi device’s short-term shutdown, the market experienced short-term speculation, but the downstream follow-up was limited. With the restart of export in the first ten days of December, the market continues to decline. In the last ten days of the month, the price of northeast goods is relatively low, which just needs to be followed up in succession to boost the downstream part, and the market situation shows some signs of stabilizing. However, at the end of the month, Zhejiang Petrochemical plant was successfully commissioned, and it was reported that Dalian Hengli plant also had a commissioning plan in January, which will result in a large increase in the supply of butadiene in the medium and long term, affecting the expectation of some businesses. In the short term, the domestic butadiene market is likely to continue to decline slightly. It is suggested to pay attention to market supply and demand and internal and external market information guidance;
3、 Future forecast:
Business analysts believe that: in December, the ABS market volatility has increased, and the spot prices of various brands have rebounded. Cost side of the upstream three expect to rise and fall this month, general support for the cost side. The spot supply is a little tight until the end of the month. The inquiry of downstream factories has been improved to a certain extent, and the procurement is carried out step by step. With the enrichment of spot goods in the field, the mentality of merchants began to turn weak, and the delivery was mainly on the market. It is expected that the domestic ABS market will be dominated by the whole market in the near future. It is suggested to pay close attention to the trend of cost side.
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