1、 Price trend
According to the data of business agency, the average price of n-butanol as of January 8 was 5833 yuan / ton (including tax), up 1.14% compared with January 4. At present, the reference average price is basically the same as that at the beginning of the month (January 1).
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2、 Market analysis
Products: since December 2019, the domestic market of n-butanol has been continuously weak and falling, and the industry’s bearish attitude has been increasing. This weak situation has continued until the beginning of January 2020. On January 2, Shandong’s individual large n-butanol plants once again lowered their offer to attract downstream users to purchase. On that day, the average price of market participation in the offer fell to 5766.67 yuan / ton, and the downstream just needs replenishment, plus the beginning of the month Shandong Dachang plant is affected by heavy pollution weather, the load of the plant is reduced, the market price is good, the sales pressure is relieved, and the market recovery is supported. On June 6, the plant load of Shandong large factory is expected to increase, the low price transaction of n-butanol market is still smooth, downstream users bargain hunting, the supply of low price goods in the market can be reduced, in addition to the continuous increase of raw propylene, the international oil price rises, giving the confidence of the industry to boost, the market atmosphere improves to support the market offer firm, at present, the market offer price has a callback, Luxi Chemical n-butanol reference The quotation is about 5800 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton compared with January 2; the factory quotation of Shandong lihuayi n-butanol is 5800 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton compared with March 3; the factory quotation of Wanhua n-butanol is 5900 yuan / ton in North China, 6200 yuan / ton in East China, up 100 yuan / ton compared with March 3.
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Industrial chain: as of January 8, the market price of propylene in Shandong continues to rise. Influenced by international crude oil, domestic propylene price rebounded from the bottom at the end of December, rising continuously. On January 5 and 6, it was generally stable, and on January 7, it began to rise again. Today, the enterprise price is still slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction is about 6950-7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6950 yuan / ton. At present, the situation in the Middle East is tense, the international crude oil price is soaring, and rain and snow weather occur in some parts of Shandong Province, which causes certain obstacles to transportation. Although some of the lower reaches are also negative and the profit margin is reduced, the overall supply is tight and the market is stable. It is expected that the market price of propylene will continue to rise in recent days.
3、 Future forecast
According to the analysis of the data division of the business agency, it is expected that the n-butanol market will fluctuate slightly and maintain stable operation in the near future before the Spring Festival.
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