1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of January 7, the average market price of organosilicon DMC in several major areas monitored by the data was 18700 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton or 0.36% compared with the end of last month (December 31).
2、 Market analysis
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Products: in 2020, the domestic organosilicon market continues to operate stably. Only a few organosilicon DMC manufacturers have slightly reduced the price by about 300 yuan / ton. At present, the main quotation of organosilicon DMC is 18300-19000 yuan / ton, and some low prices are 18100 yuan / ton. As the Spring Festival is getting closer and closer, the heat of goods preparation gradually fades, and some middle and lower reaches factories will be shut down for holidays, and the market trading atmosphere will gradually trend It’s flat. Before the Spring Festival, the price of organosilicon is basically stable. The fluctuation is limited. Due to the different inventory of various manufacturers, some manufacturers may slightly reduce their prices. They want to stimulate the growth before the year, but it has little impact on the current organosilicon market as a whole. In January, the number of plant maintenance increased, and the overall operating rate of the market declined. Starting next week, some factories in the middle and lower reaches will be shut down, Until the start of construction after the festival, the current market is running smoothly.
Operation of the unit: the unit in Jiangxi base of Aiken organic silicon is 450000t / A, the unit is in normal operation this week, and the maintenance plan is expected in late January; the production capacity of Xingfa in Hubei is 180000t / A, the unit is currently in the process of shutdown and parallel operation, and it is expected to resume operation in mid January, and the annual production capacity after parallel operation will exceed 300000 t / A; Shandong area: the unit of Luxi Chemical is in stable operation at present; Jinling in Shandong Province is expected to be in the first ten days of January There is a maintenance plan; the production capacity of Dongyue, Shandong Province is 250000 tons / year, and the current operating rate is about 7 floors; Zhejiang Province: Zhejiang Xin’an and Zhejiang Hesheng are currently in normal operation; Tangshan Sanyou has a production capacity of 200000 tons / year, and the maintenance plan is expected in January.
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Industry chain: under the cost support of upstream DMC, silicone oil and 107 rubber are still firm and stable in the current market reference quotation, and the turnover in silicone oil market is slightly light. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream demand is weakened, and a small part of the demand for goods preparation makes the turnover of new orders limited. At the same time, the market has always been in conflict with high prices, and the downstream stock is mainly cautious. At present, 107 rubber manufacturers mainly focus on orders in the early stage of delivery, with little inventory pressure in the short term and good overall supply and demand fundamentals. On January 6, the external quotation of methyl silicone oil (conventional viscosity) manufacturers was around 19000-20500 yuan / ton; that of 107 rubber manufacturers was around 19000-20200 yuan / ton.
3、 Future forecast
According to the analysts of the business club, the market has basically completed the stock before the festival. At present, the market demand is relatively weak, and the factory inventory pressure is relatively small. Under the current situation of weak supply and demand, it is expected that the price before the festival will not fluctuate much, and the market will remain stable before the Spring Festival.
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