On January 6, in the context of the continued intensification of the US Iraq conflict, international oil prices continued to rise, and domestic energy and chemical futures rose across the board. By the end of the day, the main contracts of fuel oil futures were up and down in 2005, the main contracts of crude oil futures were up 5.69%, the main contracts of petroleum asphalt futures were up nearly 5%, and the main contracts of methanol, glycol and PTA futures were up more than 2%.
Market participants believe that the performance of domestic energy and chemical futures on Monday is within market expectations. In the context of overlapping global political cycles, geopolitics is likely to become one of the main factors affecting crude oil prices throughout this year. Oil prices fluctuate or intensify. Investors should keep rational and pay attention to risk prevention and control.
After yesterday’s closing, the Institute and its subsidiary, ine, issued a notice saying that the international situation in recent days is complex and changeable, and there are many uncertain factors affecting the operation of the market, requiring all relevant units to do a good job in risk prevention, rational investment, and maintain the smooth operation of the market.
| EDTA 2Na |
On Friday (January 3), the United States launched a rocket attack on the International Airport in Baghdad, the capital of Iraq. Qasim Sulaimani, commander of the “Holy City Brigade” under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard of Iran, was “cleared at designated points” in the attack, while Abu Mehdi muhandis, deputy commander of the Iraqi Shiite militia group “people’s mobilization organization”, was also killed. Several senior Iranian officials later warned of retaliation against the United States. As a result, international oil prices rose sharply and rapidly.
On January 5, the national assembly of Iraq held a special meeting to pass a resolution on ending the presence of foreign troops such as the United States in Iraq. On the same day, the Iranian government announced a complete suspension of the implementation of the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue. Analysts believe that this is a series of actions such as US air strikes on Shiite forces in Iraq and “targeted clearance” of senior Iranian general Sulaimani. The United States is likely to take a tough response to this, and the tension in the Middle East is likely to escalate further.
In this context, the international community’s concern about the spillover of tensions between the United States and Iraq to the whole Middle East region has gradually increased, which has further boosted the risk appetite of the global market. The price of gold, a safe haven asset, has risen substantially, and the price of crude oil has continued to rise. Yesterday, WTI and Brent crude oil futures electronic market both jumped short and opened wide oscillation, ine crude oil futures main 2005 contract intraday trading limit, closing up more than 5%.
“Compared with foreign crude oil futures, ine crude oil futures increased significantly, which is related to the fact that the delivery varieties of ine crude oil futures are mostly Middle East oil.” Wang Xiao, director of crude oil research at Guotai Junan Futures, told the futures daily that at present, the US Iraq conflict has not spread to the Middle East and has not affected Iraq’s crude oil production and export, “the recent rise of international oil prices is mainly affected by geopolitics.”.
In the view of she Jianyue, assistant general manager of Yide futures, the Middle East, with one-third of the world’s oil production and nearly half of the world’s oil reserves, has always been the main place of geopolitical events, and the current market sentiment is dominated by concerns about Iran’s follow-up counter-measures.
“In the short to medium term, any emergency in the Middle East region will lead to rising market concerns, which will lead to significant fluctuations in international oil prices.” Yan Wenguang, head of the energy and chemical business department of Lufeng futures, said that the notice of risk prompt issued by the previous period office and its subsidiaries in time would help all parties in the market to strengthen their understanding of the current market risk and make rational investment. In the face of large fluctuations in oil prices, industrial institutions should actively use crude oil futures and other related tools to hedge risks.
| Benzalkonium chloride |
Yang an, head of energy and chemical research and development of Haitong futures, said that in the fourth quarter of 2019, affected by the global economy’s unexpected recovery and OPEC + deepening production reduction expectations, crude oil prices fluctuated upward, which had been showing a situation of complete digestion and inability to continue upward, but the recent us Iraq conflict changed the operation logic of crude oil prices. In the short term, the mainland margin politics will dominate the oil price trend.
According to Wang Xiao, there are multiple overlapping political cycles in the world this year, and geopolitics may affect oil prices throughout the year.
In response to the withdrawal request of the Iraqi parliament, President trump threatened that the Iraqi government needs to pay for the long-term presence of the U.S. military, otherwise the U.S. military will not withdraw. He also said that even if the U.S. forces withdraw from Iraq later, the U.S. will sanction Iraq on a large scale. U.S. officials have yet to make a statement about Iran’s announcement to suspend the implementation of its nuclear agreement, but the U.S. side has taken a strong stance against Iran. Trump warned Iran that if Iran attacks US personnel or facilities, the US will carry out a swift attack on 52 Iranian targets. Analysts pointed out that the confrontation between the United States and Iran is becoming increasingly acute, gradually changing from an “agent” model to a direct conflict. The conflict between the two countries will not only affect the security and stability of Iraq, but also may spill over to other countries in the Middle East.
“Judging from the current situation, there are still variables in the follow-up to the US Iraq conflict, and the volatility of commodity prices such as crude oil will intensify.” GUI Chenxi, a crude oil analyst at CITIC futures, reminded investors to strengthen risk prevention and control, pay attention to controlling positions and invest rationally.
| Sodium selenite |