1、 Price trend
After new year’s day, the decline of LNG continued. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on January 2 was 3716.67 yuan / ton, and the average price on January 3 was 3486.67 yuan / ton, down 6.19% in two days, up 35.03% compared with the same period last year. On January 3, the LNG commodity index was 85.94, down 5.67 points from yesterday, 58.87% from 208.96 (2017-12-25), the highest point in the cycle, and 24.82% higher than 68.85, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)
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2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Products: according to the data monitoring of business agency, as of January 3, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Ordos Star Energy Co., Ltd. is 3490 yuan / ton, and that of Inner Mongolia etokeqian banner Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3470 yuan / ton. The LNG price of Xinjiang Qinghua Energy Group Co., Ltd. is 3400 yuan / ton, that of Zizhou LNG plant of Shaanxi Lvyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3650 yuan / ton, that of Xinjiang guanghuinaomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) is 2600 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi Qinshui Xinao is 3600 yuan / ton, that of Dazhou Huixin is 3800 yuan / ton, and that of Shaanxi Zhongyuan green energy natural gas Co., Ltd It’s 3500 yuan / ton. Liquid prices rise and fall with each other. Liquid prices rise and fall with each other across the country, and the overall decline.
Market analysis: this year’s new year’s Day holiday time is only one day, the time is short, the demand has not improved. After the festival, the trend of LNG is still weak. On December 27, PetroChina auctioned, the price of raw materials decreased, and the pressure of manufacturers reduced, but the market was abundant in supply, and the inventory was in a high position, so the manufacturers continued to reduce prices and make shipments. Recently, there are rain, snow and heavy fog in many places in the north, LNG shipment is blocked, tank transportation is not smooth, and air pollution emergency response has been issued in many places, environmental protection “shutdown order” has affected the gas consumption of LNG industry in some areas, and there is no large-scale replenishment demand, pipeline gas is relatively abundant, and LNG price is under pressure. Earlier this year’s new year, the industrial gas consumption will be reduced, the overall market trading is not prosperous, and under the guidance of downstream demand, the trading center will start to move down, and the market is weak and hard to change.
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It is reported that from January to November 2019, the national LNG production was monitored and statistics show that: in November 2019, the national LNG production was 1.015 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%; in January to November 2019, the national LNG production was 10.573 million tons, a cumulative increase of 15.1%.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are three kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on January 2, 2020, among which the top three commodities are liquefied gas (1.45%), methanol (1.09%) and MTBE (0.62%). There are 6 commodities falling on a month on month basis, with Brent crude oil (- 3.57%), diesel oil (- 1.26%) and WTI crude oil (- 1.01%) as the top three products. The average price of this day was – 0.26%.
3、 Future forecast
According to liquefied natural gas analyst of business association, there is no big gap in the market in the warm winter of this year, and there is abundant supply. Near the end of this year, the market demand is reduced, some enterprises have been repaired, and the imbalance between supply and demand is further intensified. At present, the environmental protection is becoming increasingly strict, the serious problem of heavily polluted natural gas is severe, and the downstream demand is not boosted, so it is expected that liquefied natural gas will continue to bear pressure in the future Downward interest shipment.
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