1、 Price trend
The domestic aggregate MDI market rose first and then fell. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market at the beginning of the month was 12750 yuan / ton, and the price of the aggregate MDI at the end of the month was 12925 yuan / ton, up 1.37% in the month, 11.66% higher than the same period last year.
| ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate) |
2、 Market analysis
Product: in December, the domestic aggregate MDI market rose first, then fell, and finally became stronger. At the beginning of the month, influenced by the listing prices of major manufacturers, the supply also continued to be limited, the price of the goods holders was on the high side, the market price continued to rise slightly, and the upward trend lasted for about 10 days. After all, the demand side was not supported enough, the downstream high price was in conflict, and the transaction atmosphere turned weak. After the middle of the month, the market began to move sideways. In addition, due to the low quotation of imported Japanese and Korean futures, and the impact of the middleman’s urgent shipment, the market price began to decline. However, under the limited supply of the supplier, the quotation of the first-class traders in the field is still firm, and they are reluctant to sell and ship. After the second ten days of the month, the main factories successively announced the listing prices in January 2020, and the listing prices of the main factories were significantly reduced. However, the supply volume continued to discount on the basis of the supply in December, and the market price turned from a negative decline to a slight upward trend. However, the middlemen and the downstream are now slightly in conflict with the high prices, and the intention to store goods is not great. However, due to the limited supply of goods, the first-class agent is reluctant to sell at a high price. It is difficult for the actual negotiated transaction price to go up substantially.
Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, pure benzene: in the month, affected by the weak profit of Aromatics Complex, some PX plants in China shut down production and the by-product pure benzene production decreased. Due to the same reason, the load of PX in South Korea decreased and the production of pure benzene decreased, resulting in the low export volume to China. East China’s port inventory further fell to around 78000 tons. As a result, the domestic spot price was tight in the month, and the market price continued to rise from 5450 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 6000 yuan / ton. In the last ten days of last month, due to the lower than expected short covering and the impact of arrival of the port, the market price fell. By 31, the main negotiation in East China was 5750-5820 yuan / ton.
| povidone Iodine |
Aniline: in terms of aniline, in the first ten days of the month, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, the inventory pressure of aniline enterprises in North China is large, the downstream is mainly waiting for purchasing on demand, with a strong attitude of waiting to fall, and the factory’s delivery price is falling. In mid month, aniline rebounded and fell. With the wide rise of raw material pure benzene and the loss of aniline profit, the factory has no intention of price reduction. The downstream actively inquires and buys on the cheap, which makes the inventory of aniline factory release rapidly and the price rebound. However, the downstream demand follow-up was insufficient, the aniline factory inventory was high, and the market fell. In the last ten days of the month, some enterprises in the lower reaches of Henan Province shut down more and demand is poor. However, the profit of aniline plant continues to lose, the load is not high, and the output is low, so the price has a smooth transition. But new year’s Day is approaching, the market is light, the factory inventory is increasing, and the price is slightly weakening.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in December 2019, there were 26 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which there were 8 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 9.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities were propane (27.23%), crude benzene (11.66%) and pure benzene (10.94%). There are a total of 50 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, and 17 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 20% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the top 3 falls are sulfur (-17.03%), lithium hydroxide (-13.50%) and hydrochloric acid (-12.64%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 0.87%.
3、 Future forecast
Business club point of view: Kesi Chuang factory announced the price after the festival, it is understood that it should also cooperate with the trend of other factories. The on-site agents offer high prices, the delivery is cautious, and the sporadic small orders are concluded. Middlemen and the downstream are also rational about the current market price, and there is no hoarding behavior. At present, the price has an upward trend, the force of the supplier is large, and the demand side is difficult to support. MDI analysts predict that the domestic MDI market is difficult to fall in price in short term, but the actual negotiated transaction price is also difficult to rise significantly.
| Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent) |