1、 Price trend
2、 Market analysis
| EDTA |
In the first three quarters, the price of domestic asphalt market fluctuated repeatedly, and the price of asphalt market fluctuated upward, from 3434 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 3640 yuan / ton at the end of September. First of all, in 2019, the international crude oil market surged, the Sino US trade relations were uncertain, the crude oil market “black swan” events occurred frequently, OPEC production reduction twists and turns, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East was pending, many factors affected the oil market, the oil price also showed UPS and downs, twists and turns, the domestic asphalt market is also cyclical, ups and downs. Secondly, in January and February, when the road construction stagnated, there was an increase in the demand for asphalt storage in winter; in April and may, when the road engineering was centralized and launched, there was a sharp drop in the price of crude oil, which restricted the upward trend of asphalt; in July and August, when the crude oil stabilized and the market sentiment began to improve, the demand of asphalt market was affected by rainfall in many places. On the whole, the first three quarters of the asphalt market mixed with many empty news, and the asphalt market fluctuated upward, but basically in line with the upward trend of the market price focus in the peak season.
| Melamine |
In the fourth quarter, the domestic asphalt market price showed a unilateral downward trend, from 3640 yuan / ton to 3384 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with a drop of 7.05%. In terms of international crude oil, Saudi Arabia continued to release the signal of production reduction, and superimposed the phased results of Sino US trade negotiations. The future trade environment is expected to be improved, and oil prices continue to rise moderately. However, the overall demand of asphalt market shows a gradual downward trend, and the domestic spot price of asphalt began to turn downward in October, and low-cost goods from Northeast China and Shandong successively poured into East China, further impacting the spot price of East China market. Until the end of November, the overall performance was that traders expected to be pessimistic, mainly in wait-and-see mood, only purchasing on demand, and the pressure gradually emerged. Although the crude oil at the cost end stabilized again in December, the profit of coking material has been better than that of asphalt, and the traders have no intention of replenishing the storage, and the winter storage season is far away. Asphalt bottoming stabilized in December.
3、 Future forecast
Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst with business club, believes that the price trend of the asphalt Market in 2019 is generally in line with the trend of the asphalt lean season. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, the total planned investment of the national highway is 9.7 trillion, while from January 2016 to October 2019, the total planned investment of the national highway is 7.8 trillion, accounting for 80% of the plan, and 20% of the plan still needs to be completed. The uncertainty of asphalt price in 2020 still comes from the relationship between crude oil price and asphalt supply and demand. In 2019, the international oil price is expected to increase by a limited margin. Therefore, it is predicted that the price focus of asphalt market will be limited in 2020.
| EDTA 2Na |