Commodity index: on December 31, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 101.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.61% from 109.01 (2019-08-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 0.89% from 100.90, the lowest point on December 19, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)
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Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on December 31, 2019, the mainstream market price of polyaluminium chloride (fixed, content ≥ 28%) was about 1833.33 yuan / ton. On December 1, the mainstream market price was 1950 yuan / ton, and the overall price of this month was reduced by 3.42%.
Price situation: the mainstream monitoring manufacturers of the business association, the mainstream quotation of domestic polyaluminium chloride market continued to be lowered in December. In the second half of 2019, after experiencing the high price caused by the shutdown from August to October, the price of polyaluminium chloride continued to decline after returning to 1950 yuan / ton on July 1; in six months, the lowest price was 1833.33 yuan / ton on the second half of December, and the highest price was 2016.67 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com) on the commodity, the main quotation range of domestic market of polyaluminium chloride is mainly concentrated in: the quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) with tax is about 1800-2200 yuan / ton, the quotation of liquid (industrial grade, content 10% – 12%) with tax is about 380-450 yuan / ton, and the freight of some manufacturers in Henan is increased this month, so the quotation is increased by 50 yuan / ton Right, but some traders in North China have reduced their quotation by 200 yuan / ton due to the lower procurement cost in the early stage.
Industrial chain: in the six months from July to December, when the starting rate of polyaluminium chloride manufacturers is high, the production is normal, the quantity of goods is sufficient and the demand growth is stable in July, the supply is surplus and the price is down; since the middle of August, due to the influence of environmental protection and other factors, the starting of manufacturers is limited, the supply of goods is reduced and the price is up, which continues to the late September. After the National Day in October, the production of polyaluminium chloride manufacturers returned to normal, and the supply of goods was relatively stable. In general, in addition to the sharp rise of polyaluminium price caused by the shutdown in the third quarter, the price of polyaluminium chloride in the fourth quarter dropped slightly; the trend in November was similar to the “Z” shape of the extended version; the price in December fell to 1833.33 yuan / ton steadily. Among the upstream raw materials, the price of hydrochloric acid in North China monitored by the business association rose sharply in 2019, while the price in December was reduced by about 40 yuan / ton, 290 yuan / ton on December 1, 253 yuan / ton on December 31, down 12.64%. Downstream, in the winter construction off-season, the purchase volume is sharply reduced, the quantity of polyaluminium chloride is sufficient, the cost is reduced, and the supporting effect on the price of polyaluminium chloride is weakened.
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Industry: this round of intermittent production stoppage started in late July has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production one after another. This round of production stoppage cycle returns, and the production is stopped again in four seasons according to the requirements of environmental protection: in late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production stoppage, which requires: according to the environmental pollution status of the whole city and the pollution weather in the future According to the situation analysis, the municipal office requires all deep governance enterprises to stop production and governance before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the office. 2. After resumption of production, the production will be stopped again: the production will be resumed for ten days in August, and it will be stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the production stop is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 4. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production.
Future market forecast: the analysis of the business agency shows that the lower upstream raw material price is conducive to the manufacturer’s control of production costs. After the new year’s day in 2020, the Gongyi manufacturer in Henan Province will restart, the supply of goods will increase, and the supply of goods will be sufficient, while the winter construction determines the reduction of the downstream procurement. To sum up, polyaluminium chloride market shock weak trend, pay attention to the start-up and inventory situation of manufacturers in the future.
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