Monday (December 30) in Asia, international oil prices fluctuated narrowly, maintaining a three-and-a-half-month high as a whole. Oil prices closed positive for four weeks, the longest consecutive increase since April, due to the positive impact of the US EIA crude oil inventory falling to the lowest level in two months, the stock market rising, and OPEC + deepening production reduction.
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However, due to weak production reduction alliance and low global crude oil demand, the supply and demand of oil prices are still unbalanced in 2020, which will be reflected in the pattern of supply exceeding demand, which foreshadows the medium-term downward trend of oil prices.
Russia said that OPEC + crude oil production reduction has stabilized the global oil market, but will not last forever, because after March 2020, the uncertainty faced by the future of the production reduction agreement continues.
Russian energy minister Novak said in an interview, “the reduction of crude oil production cannot be permanent, and we will gradually need to decide to withdraw from the agreement. Russia needs to defend its market share and let its oil companies develop new projects. ”
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Novak did not specify when Russia might decide to withdraw from the deal, but said it expected to discuss it with OPEC + colleagues in 2020, with global oil demand surging as early as next summer.
“In fact, OPEC has cut large-scale oil supply for quite a long time, and the duration of its action and the scale of production reduction are mostly unusual,” said Martijn rats, commodity strategist at Morgan Stanley. There is still a need for longer and larger cuts, reflecting the potential weakness of market fundamentals. ”
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