Slava kiryushin, DWF’s head of global energy, highlighted the expected trends in the global energy sector in 2020, according to hydrocarbon processing news on December 26.
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When it comes to global oil trade in 2020, kiryushin is expected to see oversupply. “Many oil traders predict a bull market for the global oil industry in 2020, and some of them even speculate that oil prices could reach $100 / barrel,” he said. However, recent market analysis shows that this is unlikely to happen, and the market will be in a state of oversupply. I think this is mainly due to the increase of shale gas production and the lower than expected global economic growth. The latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) supports the idea that there will be a global oversupply. ”
“Even the new shipping fuel regulation (i.e. IMO 2020) to be implemented in January 2020 is not expected to change this trend, although it may lead to increased demand for low sulfur gasoline and diesel. There is no doubt that the growth of oil supply is a sensitive topic for OPEC + member countries, because 500000 barrels / day of production has been agreed to be cut from OPEC’s supply. Overall, the market is not so optimistic about the ‘recovery’ of oil prices. ”
According to kiryushin, demand for natural gas is likely to increase by 2020. “Unlike hydrocarbons, natural gas demand is likely to grow in 2020 and beyond,” he said. Whether it’s due to IMO 2020, the demand for chemical products (requiring natural gas) or the environmental impetus to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, it can prove that the demand for natural gas will increase. ”
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“Climate change also has a significant impact on gas demand. Whether it’s using natural gas as a fuel to keep the northern hemisphere warm in the cold winter or converting it into electricity to drive air conditioning in the hot summer, natural gas will remain at the forefront of the energy sector in 2020. ”
“The only real question is whether oil related gas prices are sufficiently competitive with alternative fuels.”
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