1、 Market Overview
According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of domestic fluorite fell sharply in 2019, with an average price of 3633.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, and 28944400 tons at the end of the year, with a decline of 20.34% for the whole year. As can be seen clearly from the price trend chart of fluorite, the highest price of fluorite in 2019 appears at the beginning of the year, with the highest price of 3633.33 yuan / ton. The lowest price of fluorite appears on April 22, with the lowest price of 2815 yuan / ton. The market price of the whole year drops sharply.
2、 Market analysis
In 2019, the price trend of the whole year is roughly divided into three stages. The first stage is from the beginning of the year to the middle of April, and the price of domestic fluorite market drops sharply; the second stage is from the late April to the middle of July, and the price of domestic fluorite rebounds and rises; the third stage is from the late July to the end of the year, and the price trend of fluorite fluctuates and falls, and the specific trend is as follows:
In the first stage, from the beginning of 2019 to the middle of April, the price of fluorite in the domestic market dropped sharply. The price at the beginning of the year was 3633.33 yuan / ton, and the price in the middle of April was 2815 yuan / ton, with a sharp decline of 22.10%. The main impacts are as follows: on the one hand, in terms of supply, due to the warm weather, the recent start-up and restart of domestic fluorite plants, the continuous opening of mines and flotation plants in the field, the supply of fluorite in the field is relatively increased, the domestic fluorite field has sufficient spot supply, and the price of fluorite continues to decline; on the other hand, in terms of demand, the domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers have sufficient stock before the year, during the holidays After the purchase is limited, the fluorite market is poor, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid drops sharply. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid drops by as much as 25%. The downstream market price of hydrofluoric acid drops and the raw materials of manufacturers are in stock. The fluorite market is dragged down and the price keeps falling. Finally, the downstream refrigerant product units in the terminal market are generally started, the demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid is weakened, the downstream refrigerant trading market is general, the unit starting rate in R22 market is low, the main production enterprises mainly ship a small amount of steel cylinders, and the actual demand of the market has declined, so the shipping market trend is poor. The market price of R134a in China is low, the unit operating rate of production enterprises is low, the refrigerant market demand is weak, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the transaction price in the market does not change much, and the merchants purchase on demand. Affected by various negative factors, the price of fluorite in the first stage fell sharply.
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The second stage is from late April to mid July, with domestic fluorite prices rebounding and rising. The price of fluorite in China increased from 2815 yuan / ton to 3150 yuan / ton, or 12%. The price of fluorite in China has risen. On the one hand, as the domestic refrigeration industry enters the peak season of sales, the market price of downstream hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant keeps rising, and the demand for fluorite has increased. The price of fluorite is higher supported by the favorable market. On the other hand, the supply of domestic fluorite enterprises is a little tight, environmental protection efforts are not reduced, the operating rate of small fluorite manufacturers is low, the supply of domestic fluorite is insufficient, and the price of fluorite is supported to some extent. In the second price segment, the price of domestic fluorite rose, but the overall demand did not improve significantly. The price of fluorite rose 10% in three months.
The third stage is from late July to the end of the year. Fluorite prices fluctuated and fell. With the end of the sales peak season of the domestic refrigeration industry, the price of domestic fluorite returned to a downward trend. In late July, the price was 3150 yuan / ton, and at the end of the year, the price of fluorite was 2894.44 yuan / ton, with a decline of 8% in the third stage. During this period, the supply of fluorite in China was normal, and some fluorite manufacturers had high inventory, which made the price of fluorite decline. In addition, the operating rate of domestic refrigerant industry in the second half of the year was very low. According to statistics, the overall operating rate of the refrigeration industry was about 30%. The demand of downstream refrigerant industry was not good. The demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid was not improved, and the price of fluorite gradually declined. Finally, the price of fluorite from abroad has impacted the domestic fluorite market. Fluorite from Mongolia and Central Asian countries has been imported to China. The price of imported fluorite is relatively low. The domestic fluorite market has been impacted, and the price of fluorite is low.
In general, in 2019, the fluorite market dropped significantly, and the price trend of all products in the fluorine chemical industry declined. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in the downstream of fluorite in 2019 is as follows:
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From the correlation trend chart of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid, it can be clearly seen that the two trends are quite similar. In 2019, the market prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid are significantly lower, domestic demand is not improving, and the market of fluorine chemical raw materials is not good.
3、 Future forecast
Chen Ling, an analyst with fluorite business club, thinks that fluorite market will be tepid in 2020. From the perspective of fluorite market supply, domestic environmental protection efforts will not be reduced, and some domestic fluorite manufacturers are still unable to start normal operation. The supply of domestic fluorite market will be limited to some extent, so fluorite price will be supported to some extent. However, in the near future, the export volume of domestic fluorite has increased, and the price of imported fluorite is all the same On the low side, the market price of fluorite will continue to be impacted, and the pressure on the price of fluorite in China is huge. Therefore, in 2020, the highest market price of fluorite will not exceed the level of 3400 yuan / ton. Influenced by the strengthening of domestic environmental protection, the lowest price of fluorite will also remain above 2700 yuan / ton in 2020.
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