1、 Market trend of synthetic rubber
In 2019, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was mainly in a fluctuating trend
In 2019, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was mainly in shock trend. Taking August as the watershed, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell in a narrow range before August; after August, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose first and then fell rapidly. In 2019, the high price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is 12900 yuan / ton on September 27, and the low price is 10450 yuan / ton on July 18, which can be roughly divided into six stages
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In the first stage, before March 2019, due to the lack of supply in the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market around the lunar new year, traders have a strong willingness to hold prices, with prices above 11700 yuan / ton;
In the second stage, from the beginning of March to the middle of April, with the recovery of petrochemical plants, the supply of goods in the market is sufficient, and the downstream starts are not as expected. The overall performance of the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, and the price drops to 11000 yuan / ton. In the third stage, from the middle of April to the middle of June, on the one hand, the price of raw materials fluctuates up and down, on the other hand, the downstream starts gradually recover, and the price of cis-1,2-polybutadiene rubber is maintained at 11200 yuan/ Small shocks above tons;
In the fourth stage, from the middle of June to the end of July, the supervision of environmental protection became more strict, the operating rate of downstream tire and product factories declined, and the price of raw material butadiene fell, the contradiction between upstream and downstream supply and demand became larger, and the price of cis-1,5-polybutadiene rubber fell all the way to around 10500 yuan / ton;
In the fifth stage, from the end of July to the middle of November, under the pressure of the rising cost of crude oil and butadiene in the early stage, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose sharply to 12900 yuan / ton along the way. Then, with the collapse of cost and the continuous lack of demand, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell sharply to 10725 yuan / ton along the way, forming a roller coaster trend of rapid rise and fall;
In the sixth stage, from the middle of November to the end of the year, on the one hand, the price of natural rubber rose, which led to the bullish atmosphere of synthetic rubber; on the other hand, the stock of market traders was low, with strong willingness to stand up, and the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose slightly.
Overall, in 2019, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose sharply and fell sharply in the third quarter, except for the impact of unexpected events. In the whole year, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was basically in a weak shock situation affected by weak demand.
In 2019, the styrene butadiene rubber market fell first and then rose, with the overall year-end slightly down 2.5% compared with the beginning of the year.
In the first seven months of 2019, the domestic price of SBR declined all the way, from 12000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 10112 yuan / ton, the lowest point in July. The main reasons are as follows:
First of all, the raw material butadiene fell all the way in the first half of the year, and the cost of SBR was under pressure. According to the monitoring of the business association, the domestic butadiene price in the first half of the year dropped from 9836 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 7812 yuan / ton at the end of April. Secondly, the cost of raw materials has been greatly reduced, the styrene butadiene production enterprises have high operating rate driven by profits, the market supply is sufficient, and the price of styrene butadiene rubber has been suppressed. Finally, at the beginning of the year, the start-up of downstream enterprises recovered slowly. In April and may, they encountered policies such as limited production and power supply and strict environmental protection inspection. The start-up rate of downstream tire factories continued to decline. In the first half of the year, the downstream procurement continued to be weak, which was a big negative for SBR.
From the beginning of August to the end of December, the price of domestic SBR rose in shock, from 10400 yuan / ton at the beginning of August to 11700 yuan / ton at the end of the year. On the one hand, from the beginning of August to the beginning of November, styrene butadiene rubber rose sharply and fell under the influence of cost. In the early stage, due to the black swan incident of crude oil and the decline of butadiene start-up, the price of crude oil and raw material butadiene went up all the way, and the cost side drove the rise of SBR; in the later stage, with the cost side falling, the price of SBR went down. On the other hand, in the downstream, especially in the tire factory, the operating rate in the second half of the year was relatively high, and the demand for rubber was relatively strong, which to some extent supported the rubber price.
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2、 Price trend of raw materials
According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of butadiene in 2019 fluctuated and adjusted, falling in the first half of the year as a whole, rising and falling in the second half of the year. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of butadiene dropped from 9836 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to around 7812 yuan / ton at the end of April. After that, with the increase of the outer price and the maintenance of the manufacturer’s devices, the supply of butadiene decreased, and the price gradually rose to August. In September and October, affected by the “black swan” incident of crude oil, the price quickly rose to the annual peak of 11845 yuan / ton. After that, on the one hand, the hype was released, on the other hand, the high price led to the purchase list, and then gradually fell back to the end of the year near 8300 yuan / ton. As a whole, the price trend of raw material butadiene basically keeps pace with that of synthetic rubber, and the influence of industrial chain is relatively close.
According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of styrene will fluctuate and adjust in 2019, with the overall price rising first and then falling. As of December 20, the average price of styrene quoted by styrene enterprises is 7450.00 yuan / ton, which is 8066.67 yuan / ton compared with that of styrene quoted at the beginning of 2019 (January 1), a sharp drop, a drop of 7.64%, and a drop of 9.51% compared with that of the same period last year. Generally speaking, 2019 is a year of strong supply and demand of styrene. Although the price has declined all the way compared with 2018, the industry profit of styrene is still good throughout the year, and the industry cash flow continuity is good.
3、 Downstream tire demand support
As of November 2019, the output of domestic rubber tires was 72.467 million, up 3.3% year on year; from January to November, the output of domestic rubber tires was 767.609 million, up 2.2% year on year. Overall, the year-on-year growth rate of output in the first half of the year was negative, and the year-on-year growth rate of output in the second half of the year gradually picked up to more than 2%. From the point of view of the support of demand for synthetic rubber, the support in the first half of the year was weak, while the support in the second half of the year was slightly strong.
4、 Future forecast
In 2020, there are three trends of synthetic rubber: first, the impact of Sino US trade friction. At present, the Sino US trade friction shows signs of easing, which is relatively favorable for the later tire and other rubber products exports. However, due to the possibility of repetition in the later stage, there is still a certain degree of negative impact on the start-up and consumption of downstream industries of synthetic rubber next year; second, raw materials butadiene, styrene and upstream crude oil Trend impact: in 2010, when the raw material market is not limited to production or maintenance, the price is basically in the range of shocks, which also affects the price of synthetic rubber within the range; 3. The impact of the start-up of synthetic rubber production enterprises, on the one hand, in recent two years, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber production has been surplus, and the overall unit operation rate is lower than 60% for a long time under the control of low demand. On the other hand, the production capacity of cis-1.6 million tons of butadiene rubber is almost surplus. At present, only Zhenjiang Qimei 40000 tons / year and Shandong Shengxing device have production plans. However, due to the fact that it is still in the early stage of planning, it is unlikely to be put into production in the next two years. It is expected that the production capacity of synthetic rubber will be basically stable in the later stage, and the operating rate depends on the market supply pressure and profit size.
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