1. Price analysis in the first half of 2019, the titanium dioxide price market experienced five stages: up and down, up and down. In the middle of the year, compared with the beginning of the year, the overall price declined. Due to different situations, the decline range was about 1600 yuan / ton. By the end of 2019, the factory price of China rutile titanium dioxide with tax was 13500-15200 yuan / ton, and the factory price of anatase titanium dioxide with tax was 11500-12800 yuan / ton. Among them, the market price of longmang Bailian was announced to rise four times in total on February 12, March 7, August 15 and September 3, respectively, and the decline time was in January, July and November. The first stage of decline: in January 2019, the market continues to decline at the end of 2018. Due to the market going into the off-season and approaching the Spring Festival, most enterprises in the north have stopped production. After the price has been greatly reduced, the market price is low, and some titanium dioxide manufacturers have also moved forward for maintenance. In addition, before the Spring Festival, the stock manufacturers go to stock more. In late January, longmang Baili Announced the order, on January 31, Venator announced that the price of titanium dioxide (titanium dioxide) sold in the United States and Canada increased by 0.07 USD / pound on February 1, which boosted the market, and the market price stopped falling.
The second stage of rising: entering February to March, the market price rose twice. On February 12, longmang billiard announced that based on the domestic market situation, the price of domestic customers will be increased by 500 yuan / ton, and the price of international customers will be increased by 100 dollars / ton. Then the market enterprises announced the increase in succession, with the range of 500-800 yuan / ton; on March 7, all kinds of domestic customers continued to increase 500 yuan / ton, all kinds of international customers increased 100 dollars / ton, and some enterprises followed the increase in succession. During the two rounds of price increase from February to March, some enterprises increased once, some enterprises increased twice, and the total increase of longmang was 1000 yuan / ton. After the Spring Festival, the price increase is mainly due to the large number of market maintenance enterprises, the reduction of titanium dioxide supply, the gradual recovery of downstream market after the Spring Festival, and the upward market demand. However, just after the Spring Festival, the downstream construction has not fully recovered, and the enterprises mostly execute the old orders. The price increase in early March mainly tamps the price increase in February. With the recovery of market demand and the increase of raw material prices, the actual price in March is also the same Up.
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The third stage of decline: the market rose and fell in April, and continued to decline from May to July. Among them, the price of foreign giants rose due to market demand and other factors. CITIC titanium announced that the domestic price was increased by 500 yuan / ton. In April, due to the tax rate adjustment, some enterprises in the market made a profit to the downstream. In March, the enterprises received more orders, and the order situation slowed down in April. Since the end of March, the recent domestic chemical plant safety accidents occurred frequently, the downstream enterprises were greatly affected, and the pressure of titanium dioxide shipment increased. With the market entering the slack season, the market price continued to decline from May to July. The fourth stage is the rising stage: from August to October, the market price is rising steadily. At the beginning of August, longmang issued the price adjustment letter. From August 15, the market price of titanium dioxide was increased by 500 yuan / ton, and then more than 20 enterprises in the market issued the price increase information, ranging from 500-800 yuan / ton. On September 3, longmang Bailian sent a letter again to increase the price, and then other enterprises in the market kept up. The market price rise is mainly due to the low market price and the decline of environmental protection market operating rate, the low price and the tight inventory of enterprises. In the peak season, the market price is rising steadily. In September, the price increase was unsuccessful. In October, the price of some enterprises continued to rise, including the price of international titanium dioxide. The fifth stage of decline: at the beginning of November, longmang Bailian made a large profit to the downstream, and then the market enterprises made different adjustments. After the price reduction, due to the fact that the stock companies in the downstream end of the year have more inventory and the limited production of the enterprises, some enterprises are short of inventory. At the end of November and the beginning of December, the prices of some enterprises have increased, and the market prices have stabilized. In 2019, the overall weakness of China’s titanium dioxide market will decline. In 2020, the new capacity of titanium dioxide market will be released, and the shortage of raw materials will continue. In 2020, the titanium dioxide market will still face great pressure.
2. Import and export analysis according to the statistics of customs data, the total amount of titanium dioxide imported by China from January to October 2019 was 135600 tons, 177100 tons compared with the same period of last year, a year-on-year decline of 23.43%; the annual import volume is expected to be more than 160000 tons, a decrease of about 40000 tons compared with last year. The import volume of titanium dioxide in China has declined significantly, mainly due to the continuous improvement of the quality of domestic sulfuric acid titanium dioxide and the high price abroad, the poor performance of domestic demand, and the continuous release of new production capacity of China’s Chlorinated titanium dioxide, and the gradual decrease of high-end imported titanium dioxide.
According to the statistics of customs data, the total amount of titanium dioxide exported by China from January to October 2019 was 820800 tons, an increase of 5.08% over the previous year. The export volume is expected to rise steadily. It is estimated that the annual export volume is about 960000 tons, and the top export enterprises are still longmang Bailian, CNNC titanium dioxide, Shandong Jinhai, etc. Due to the poor economic situation, the export price has declined. Affected by the Sino US trade war, the amount of titanium dioxide exported to the United States has decreased significantly. As the economic development of India, Brazil and other developing countries continues to speed up, the demand for titanium dioxide products has increased and become the main force of demand growth.
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From January to October, the average import price was 3018.96 USD / ton, down 1.67% from 3070.18 last year. The average export price was 2223.34 USD / ton, down 12.75% from 2548.30 USD / ton last year.
3. Production analysis according to the statistics of Tu Duoduo, the new capacity of China’s titanium dioxide in 2019 is about 3.92 million tons, and the output of China’s titanium dioxide in January November 2019 is 2.8584 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 140000 tons, an increase of 5.27%. The annual output is expected to be 3.12 million tons.
In 2019, new titanium dioxide enterprises include Yibin Tianyuan, Guizhou Shengwei Fuquan and Guangxi Xilong chemical industry. In 2019, with the release of production capacity of Dongfang titanium industry in Gansu Province, the production of nuclear titanium dioxide increased more than last year; the release of 200000 tons of new production capacity of Bll and the production of Tianyuan chlorination process, the total production of chlorination process in January November was 173600 tons, with a growth rate of 25.6%, accounting for 6% of the total domestic production, with an increase of about 40000 tons compared with last year. In 2020, with the release of new capacity and the production of new capacity, it is estimated that the output of titanium dioxide will increase by nearly 300000 tons in 2020, which is under great pressure of market competition. At present, there are still projects under construction and expansion in the market. The output of titanium dioxide ranks Sichuan, Shandong and Anhui, accounting for 22%, 17% and 12% of the total domestic output respectively.
At present, there are 12 enterprises with a production capacity of over 100000 tons in China, accounting for 73% of the total domestic production capacity, 13% of which have a production capacity of less than 50000 tons. There are still many small production capacity, and the concentration of production capacity still needs to be improved.
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