Facing the situation of increasing PP capacity, the growth of domestic PP downstream demand worries the market. The diversification of domestic PP raw materials makes the market competition pattern upgrade again. Downstream demand stratification changes, general-purpose products, especially plastic products profit shrinking, and high-end plastic products still have strong demand potential due to demand!
1、 Analysis on the demand change of plastic products
| Stannous Sulphate |
According to the analysis of the output data of plastic products in 2010-2020, the growth rate of domestic plastic products shows a gradual slowdown trend, especially after experiencing the high level in 2014, the overall growth rate of plastic products shows a fluctuating downward trend. It is analyzed that the rapid decline of plastic products is mainly due to the strict inspection of domestic environmental protection and the reduction of processing enterprises under the influence of Sino US trade war. After 2019, the growth rate of plastic products slowed down again, mainly due to the sluggish global economic growth and the impact of domestic economic environment on the order follow-up of downstream products enterprises, resulting in the relative reduction of the overall output of plastic products.
2、 Upgrading of diversified competition pattern of raw materials
According to the comparative analysis of PP raw material capacity in 2016-2019, the coal to olefin capacity has the fastest growth, from 3.36 million tons in 2016 to 6.33 million tons in 2019, an increase of 2.97 million tons. Among them, coal to olefin capacity accounted for 18% in 2016, and coal to olefin capacity accounted for 26% in 2019, accounting for an increase of 8%. Its growth rate was surprising. In addition, PDH series are also fast-growing products. Due to the obvious cost advantage of propane dehydrogenation products, the later expansion products will also present new breakthroughs. With the diversification of raw materials, the market competition pressure will be gradually upgraded.
3、 Decreasing import dependence
| ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate) |
In 2019, the import dependence of PP showed a weak fluctuating situation. The total import from January to October 2019 was 20.9919 million, 7.16% higher than that from January to October 2018 (1958.87 million). Due to the strict environmental protection inspection in China, after the strict prohibition on the import of waste plastics, the domestic demand for PP raw materials is increased correspondingly, and some imported resources are increased correspondingly, so as to meet the domestic demand. However, the overall import dependence of PP shows a gradual downward trend. At present, the average import dependence in 2019 is 19.63%. It can be seen that with the continuous stimulation of domestic production capacity, some domestic materials gradually replace the imported products, and the import dependence also decreases accordingly.
4、 Domestic supply and demand game import dependence still exists
Facing the rapid expansion of domestic PP capacity, the imbalance between market supply and demand gradually highlights. Although domestic general-purpose products have gradually replaced imported products, the market demand for domestic medium and high-end products is still strong, especially the gradual opening of domestic infrastructure and two child policy, the market demand potential in anti impact products and medical industry is huge, so the demand for imported medium and high-end products still has a large development space.
| Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent) |