1、 Price trend
The domestic liquefied gas market continued to rise this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market was 4093.33 yuan / ton, while the weekend average price was 4316.67 yuan / ton, up 5.46% in the week and 0.39% higher than the same period last year.
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2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Product: the domestic liquefied gas market rose sharply this week, with a good trading atmosphere. As of December 20. The price of LPG from Sinopec Guangzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4700 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Jingmen Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4900 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4330 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4200 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shijiazhuang Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4300 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Sinopec Luoyang Petrochemical liquefied gas factory price is 4500 yuan / ton.
This week, civil gas rose a lot as the main actor in the national liquefied gas market. Under the favorable conditions of tight international spot supply, the price continued to rise. At present, the price has risen to a relatively high level, and the downstream is in a state of conflict with the high price. They have left the market one after another to wait and see. The atmosphere of market transaction has been lighter than that in the earlier stage. However, the price difference between civil gas and propane is large at present, and the manufacturer’s mentality is relatively strong due to strong seasonal factors.
Saudi Aramco’s December CP announced a slight increase in propylene butane. Propane rose to $440 / T, up $10 / T from last month; butane $455 / T, up $10 / T from last month.
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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 50th week of 2019 (12.16-12.20), there are 7 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 1 kind of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are liquefied gas (5.46%), dimethyl ether (2.79%) and petroleum coke (2.27%). There are 6 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products falling are MTBE (- 2.04%), LNG (- 1.50%) and methanol (- 1.42%). This week’s average was 0.5%.
3、 Future forecast
According to the liquefied gas analyst of the business association, at present, the price difference between civil gas and propane is large. In addition, affected by seasonal factors, the weather is cooling, the downstream replenishment cycle is shortened, the enthusiasm for entering the market is high, and the manufacturer’s mentality is relatively strong. However, there are still differences between the north and the south. It is expected that the national market will fluctuate next week, and Shandong market will adjust slightly.
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