1、 Overall trend
This week (12.16-12.20) polyethylene showed a weak decline, in which the average price of LDPE 2426h in East China monitored by the business club was about 8112.5 yuan / ton; the average price of HDPE 5000S was about 7950 yuan / ton; the average price of LLDPE 7042 was about 7383.33 yuan / ton. As of December 20, the prices of LLDPE and LDPE in East China first stabilized and then fell this week, while the prices of HDPE this week showed a horizontal trend. This week, the overall trend of PE market is weak, most of which fell by 50-150 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the week, the futures market rebounded slightly, which supported the market to a certain extent. Most of the spot markets were stable. On Tuesday, the futures market began to fall in shock, which depressed the market mentality. Businesses adjusted their offers and prices fell. In many areas of petrochemicals, the factory price has been reduced, and the terminal demand is weak, so the market has continued to decline.
On December 23, the LLDPE commodity index was 70.39, down 0.32 points from yesterday, down 40.12% from 117.56 (2013-12-11), the highest point in the cycle, and up 0.69% from 69.91, the lowest point on September 8, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
The LDPE commodity index on December 23 was 62.74, down 0.39 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 44.64% from 113.33, the highest on December 8, 2013. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
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On December 23, the HDPE commodity index was 64.17, down 0.27 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 37.29% from the highest point of 102.33 on July 24, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
2、 Market analysis
Upstream: oil prices rose steadily this week. On Monday (December 16), WTI crude oil futures settled at $60.21 a barrel in January 2020, up $0.14/barrel from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.77-60.34; Brent crude oil futures settled at $65.34 a barrel in February 2020, up $0.12/barrel from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.88-65.66/barrel. On Friday (December 20), WTI crude oil futures settlement price in February 2020 was $60.44 per barrel, down $0.78/barrel from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.02-61.20/barrel; Brent crude oil futures settlement price in February 2020 was $66.14 per barrel, down $0.40/barrel from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.70-66.72/barrel.
Import and export: about 1336500 tons of PE will be imported in October 2019. Among them, the import volume of LLDPE is 425200 tons; the import volume of HDPE is 643000 tons; the import volume of LDPE is 268300 tons, and the total export volume of PE in October 2019 is 28200 tons. The export volume of PE is 8500 tons, HDPE is 16300 tons and LLDPE is 3400 tons.
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Manufacturer’s trends: this week, the demand for plastic film in the lower reaches of PE decreased, the demand for plastic film increased in succession, and the manufacturer’s quotation for plastic film was basically stable. However, many areas are still restricted by the environmental protection policy.
Futures trend: according to the monitoring of the business club, on December 20, the opening price of polyethylene futures l2005 was 7260, the highest price was 7370, the lowest price was 7255, the closing price was 7330, the former settlement price was 7245, the settlement price was 7305, up 85, up 1.17%, the volume was 584578, the position was 725956, and the daily increase was 33450. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)
3、 Future forecast
Looking forward to the future, business analysts believe that the current strong rise in international oil prices, linear futures rebound, the market has some support. However, the petrochemical inventory has accumulated, and the downstream is in conflict with the high price supply, so the transaction is still difficult. It is expected that the future market may fall in the short term.
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