I. price trend
On December 15, the average price of propane (Shandong) market was 4195 yuan / ton, and on December 16, the average price was 4850 yuan / ton, up 15.61% in the day, up 2.65% compared with the same period last year. Propane market ushered in the “sprint” market at the end of the year.
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II. Market situation
Compared with 2018, the propane market is generally flat this year. Even in the “golden nine silver ten” of the traditional sales season, the trend of the propane market is slightly weaker. From September, in addition to the rise driven by the “attack on Saudi Arabia”, the trend in the later period is relatively flat, mainly with small shocks. But near the end of the year, propane market has made a new breakthrough, sprint to the highest point of the year.
The domestic propane market is the most representative in Shandong Province. Most refineries in Shandong Province increased by 300-800 yuan / ton this time, which completely changed the situation of continuous “tepid” propane Market. The main influencing factor of the increase was driven by the sharp increase in intake. At present, the shortage of international spot resources, the increasing cost and the decrease of propane flowing into China have led to the wide rise of domestic port price, which has led to the sharp rise of refining price. Downstream “buy up do not buy down” mentality, into the market is more active, manufacturers shipping smoothly, inventory without pressure. At present, the price of most refineries is close to 5000 yuan, and some manufacturers have broken through.
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Saudi Aramco’s December CP announced a slight increase in propylene butane. Propane rose to $440 / T, up $10 / T from last month; butane $455 / T, up $10 / T from last month.
III. future forecast
Propane analysts of the business agency believe that: at present, the overall inventory of the terminal is low, and the supply of goods is relatively tight. In addition, the intake and high international market prices support the market mentality, and the enthusiasm of the downstream is still there. The propane market is expected to rise in the short term.
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