Weak and stable operation of soda ash market under supply pressure

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of light soda ash in East China on November 11 was 1560.00 yuan / ton, down 11.70% month on month. On December 10, the commodity index of light soda ash was 80.00, flat with yesterday, down 32.12% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 26.68% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

The domestic soda market is weak and stable, and the market is light. At present, the start-up load of soda ash manufacturers is more than 90%, the downstream inventory is sufficient, the demand is limited, the supply pressure of soda ash is obvious, the market confidence is frustrated, the delivery and investment is light, and the enterprise may avoid excessive inventory risk through active maintenance. In December, three alkali plants will be cut or shut down. In the later stage, there are maintenance plans for 1.1 million tons of capacity in Shuanghuan, Hubei Province and 600000 tons of capacity in Xindu chemical industry. Shandong Haihua will continue to cut production. Even if some manufacturers stop production and reduce production, it is still a drop in the bucket in terms of supply, and the operating rate remains high. The inventory of soda plants is still increasing slowly, and the pattern of oversupply is difficult to change in the short term.

On the demand side, the downstream consumption is about to turn into the seasonal off-season, and the upward price of soda ash is lack of power. On the other hand, the fact that the supply of soda ash exceeds the demand has become a reality. The downstream glass factories have sufficient inventory, and the demand and trading are flat. The glass industry production lines have many cold repairs, and the demand side does not support the rise of soda price.

III. future forecast

Analysts of soda ash of business association think that: in the downstream, high profits stimulate the enthusiasm of glass enterprises, and there is an expectation that the demand for heavy soda will improve. Under the pattern of oversupply, soda ash is difficult to take off the downward channel in the short term, but limited by cost and profit, the downward space is limited. It is expected that the market situation of soda ash will be weak and stable. See the downstream market demand specifically.