I. price trend
According to the data in the large scale list of business associations, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam on December 3 was 11066 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam on December 4 was 10666 yuan / ton, with a single day price drop of 3.61%. So far, the caprolactam commodity index on December 4 is 53.65, down 2.01 points from yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 46.35% lower than the highest point of 100.00 on March 2, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)
II. Market analysis
| Potassium monopersulfate |
Product: domestic caprolactam continued to decline due to poor demand. Up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10100 yuan / ton, cash is delivered from the factory, the manufacturer’s capacity is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 11300 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of caprolactam liquid of Shanxi yangcoal is 10600 yuan / ton. The 200000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 11100 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. Fujian Tianchen Yaolong caprolactam liquid price 11200 yuan / ton, contract order, 280000 tons / year normal operation of the device.
Industrial chain: the pure benzene Market in East China remains firm, and the negotiation in the import market goes up. The domestic trade negotiation is referred to 5400-5450 yuan / ton, and the negotiation in the far month is 5200-5350 yuan / ton. There is more wait-and-see in the field, but the increase in the external market does not produce an effective boost, and the weak support in the downstream is insufficient. At present, domestic cyclohexanone manufacturers have made it clear that there are not many offers, and the delivery level of enterprises is around 7200-7400 yuan / ton. Most of them supply supporting downstream production demand, and the inventory level is low. The South China cyclohexanone market has been reorganized and operated. The negotiation is based on 7800-7900 yuan / ton delivery. The main trading intention is at the low end or below. The low price of the enterprise has a great restriction on the market rebound, and the supply side is general. The market of cyclohexanone in East China was reorganized and operated, and 7700-7800 yuan / ton was referred for on-site negotiation. The domestic PA6 market weakened and the spot price fell. Caprolactam continued to decline, poor support for PA6 cost end. Downstream factories just need replenishment operation, the demand is flat and the list is light.
| Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent) |
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in November 2019, there were 21 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which 8 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 9.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were hydrochloric acid (67.31%), propanone (36.29%) and isopropanol (26.96%). There are 58 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 18 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 21.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were epichlorohydrin (- 31.74%), aniline (- 19.11%) and caustic soda (- 18.56%). The average rise and fall of this month was – 1.05%.
III. future forecast
Caprolactam analysts believe that the price of upstream raw material pure benzene remains high and the cost support is limited. The downstream demand is not good, and the industry is cautious to wait and see. The supply will increase with the restart of some enterprises in the early stage of equipment maintenance. It is expected that the weak finishing of caprolactam market will be the main trend in the later period.
| ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate) |