According to the nickel price monitoring of the business association, on November 27, the spot price of nickel was 118316.67 yuan / ton, down 13.32% from 136500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 32.19% from the beginning of the year, up 24.98% year on year. Nickel prices fell continuously this month, and the main reason for the previous gains was that there was sufficient supply and light demand.
According to the current nickel schedule of the business association, the spot price of nickel in this month is higher than the main contract price, the main contract price is the price of nickel in the next two months, and the spot price is higher than the main contract price of nickel, indicating that everyone is not so optimistic about nickel in the future.
Indonesia resume export
| Potassium monopersulfate |
In September, Indonesia’s nickel mine export rose rapidly, and China’s imports from Indonesia increased by 55.8% month on month. Indonesia’s nickel export data in October increased by a staggering 300% compared with the same period in 2018, further dampening sentiment in the nickel market. In November, Indonesian ports recovered some vessels seized during the preliminary grade inspection, but they were mainly used to deliver preliminary orders, and the market circulation spot resources were scarce. Indonesia announced on October 28 that it would suspend nickel ore export for illegal investigation. Indonesia said on October 11 that it had approved nine enterprises to restart nickel ore export.
In addition, from November to March every year is the traditional rainy season in the Philippines, during which the export volume of nickel ore is expected to decrease significantly. Nickel imports are expected to grow only modestly in November and December, although domestic refineries have been stocking up ahead of time and are in short-term short supply.
Nickel inventory recovery
According to the data, the domestic output of NPI in October was 52400 tons, a decrease of 0.64% on a month on month basis and an increase of 30.34% on a year-on-year basis. The overall increase of port nickel ore inventory is significant, and the supply of nickel ore is relatively loose. In addition, the capacity of ferronickel at home and abroad continued to release, and the pressure of ferronickel supply gradually increased, dragging down the trend of nickel price.
Weak demand for stainless steel production increase
| ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate) |
In October, the national stainless steel output was 2.406 million tons, a decrease of 2.67% on a month on month basis, an increase of 4.29% on a year-on-year basis; it is expected that the output in November will be 2.425 million tons, a slight increase of 0.79% on a month on month basis. Moreover, the stainless steel inventory is at a historical high level, and the pressure of de stocking in the later stage is large. The downstream stainless steel industry has entered into the traditional off-season of consumption. With the continuous decline of nickel price, the stainless steel market is also in a downturn, and the raw material inventory in the early stage is relatively sufficient. In addition, the overall capital and sales pressure are increasing near the end of the year, and the willingness of steel plants to purchase raw materials is poor, and the short-term downstream demand for nickel is difficult to improve significantly.
Xinneng automobile encounters Waterloo
In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 95000 and 75000 respectively, down 35.4% and 45.6% year on year. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 78000 and 59000, down 33.3% and 47.3% year-on-year respectively; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 16000, down 44.3% and 38.7% year-on-year respectively. New energy vehicles encounter Waterloo, which reduces the consumption of three-way batteries and inhibits the demand for nickel.
To sum up: in the absence of substantial production reduction in stainless steel plants, it is difficult to change the status quo of high stainless steel inventory and weak market. Under the negative feedback of cold steel market and new energy vehicles, the overall short-term performance of nickel price is still weak. However, with the approaching of Indonesia’s mining ban period and the arrival of the traditional rainy season in the Philippines, the expected production reduction of domestic nickel iron plants is expected to increase, or the price of nickel is expected to increase Support.