I. overall trend
This week (11.18-11.22) polyethylene showed a weak downward trend, in which the average price of LDPE 2426h in East China monitored by the business agency was about 8175 yuan / ton; the average price of HDPE 5000S was about 7983.33 yuan / ton; the average price of LLDPE 7042 was about 7350 yuan / ton. As of November 22, the price trend of LLDPE in East China has stabilized this week, and the price of LDPE and HDPE has declined in a narrow range this week.
This week, the PE market (East China) fell 50-100 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the week, the linear futures rose in shock, and the international oil price rebounded after falling, which played a certain role in supporting the market. However, over the past weekend, petrochemical enterprises have accumulated inventory, increased supply pressure, continuously lowered prices, weakened market cost support, accompanied by shipping businesses, continued to purchase just in need downstream, and the overall market trading atmosphere is relatively light. In the later part of the week, with the continuous decline of petrochemical inventory, the pressure of market supply eased, and the rise of linear futures boosted, the market atmosphere of PE in the whole country improved slightly, the prices of major regional sales companies were basically stable, and many merchants actively reported high prices. At present, the downstream temporarily maintained on-demand orders, and the market growth still needs to be digested.
II. Market analysis
| Potassium monopersulfate |
Upstream: after the fall of international oil price this week, the price of crude oil continues to rise, and the cost of oil-based polyethylene will increase. On Monday (November 18), WTI crude oil December futures settled at $57.05 a barrel, down $0.67/barrel from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $56.55-58.09; Brent crude oil January futures settled at $62.44 a barrel, down $0.86/barrel from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.94-63.57. On Friday (November 22), WTI crude oil futures settled at $57.77 per barrel in January 2020, down $0.81/barrel from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.50-58.74/barrel; Brent crude oil futures settled at $63.39 per barrel in January 2020, down $0.58/barrel from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.98-64.27/barrel.
Manufacturer’s trends: the inventory of downstream PE film manufacturers is low this week. Due to the limitation of terminal demand, the enthusiasm of manufacturers to enter the market is weak. For the time being, orders are received on demand, and the transaction is weak. Some areas are still under the influence of strict environmental inspection, the orders of enterprises are reduced, and the production is limited.
Futures trend: this week’s Liansu trend fluctuated upward. According to the monitoring of business club, on November 22, the opening price of main contracts of polyethylene futures l2001 was 7195, the highest price was 7240, the lowest price was 7155, the closing price was 7170, the former settlement price was 7130, the settlement price was 7195, up 40, up 0.56%, the volume was 390870, the position was 471228, and the daily position was increased by – 36612. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)
| ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate) |
Import and export: about 1.3402 million tons of PE import in September 2019. Among them, the import volume of LLDPE is 40200 tons; the import volume of HDPE is 663400 tons; the import volume of LDPE is 276600 tons, and the total export volume of PE in September 2019 is 17200 tons.
III. future forecast
Looking forward to the future, business analysts believe that the current international oil price continues to rebound, which has a certain boost to the market. Linear futures rose slightly, spot market inquiries increased, and the market atmosphere improved. Petrochemical inventory continues to fall, and some plants are still in maintenance state, to some extent, to ease the supply pressure. However, the factory price of petrochemicals has been reduced, which weakens the market cost support. It is expected that the market may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.
| Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent) |