I. price trend
According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, since October, the price of domestic caprolactam market has fallen all the way, with the price down 11.64%. In the near future, the downward trend will continue. Up to now, the average price of domestic caprolactam market on November 22 is 11200 / ton, and the commodity index of caprolactam is 56.00, which is the same as that of yesterday, setting a new low in the cycle, 44.00% lower than the highest point of 100.00 on March 2, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)
| EDTA 2Na |
II. Market analysis
Product: caprolactam has continued its decline since November. At present, caprolactam is in deficit, and manufacturers are reducing production and burden. Up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10000 yuan / ton, cash is delivered from the factory, the capacity of the manufacturer is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 11600 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 11400 yuan / ton, and the 450000 ton / year unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. Fujian Tianchen Yaolong caprolactam liquid price 12300 yuan / ton, contract order, 280000 tons / year normal operation of the device.
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Industry chain: the price of pure benzene fell this month, and domestic bearish sentiment increased. East China’s pure benzene market negotiation went higher, some offers were slightly higher, port inventory remained low, the external price of pure benzene continued to rise and boost, low price supply was hard to find in the downstream, and the short-term market was strong. China’s cyclohexanone market plunged sharply, and the intention to make up the position of terminal demand was low, so we should be more cautious and wait-and-see, and the trading volume of chemical fiber single and solvent single in the market was small. Due to the pressure of inventory and delivery, the mainstream factories keep reducing their quotations. This month, the domestic PA6 market fell. In the near future, the spot supply of PA6 in China is expanding, the performance of downstream industry is declining, and the demand is weak. PA6 may continue to be light in the near future
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 46th week of 2019 (11.18-11.22), there are 19 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are isopropanol (9.31%), acetone (6.28%) and acrylic acid (3.24%). There are 26 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are caustic soda (- 11.61%), epichlorohydrin (- 8.58%) and sulfur (- 5.42%) This week’s average was – 0.38%.
III. future forecast
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Caprolactam analysts of the business club think: the supply of upstream raw materials increased, and the cost support weakened. Downstream procurement caution. Although the output has declined, there are many stocks in the market at present, the market supply exceeds the demand, and the terminal demand is insufficient. Due to the increase of market bearish factors, it is expected that the price of caprolactam will continue to fall in the later period.