In September, in just three months, the domestic caustic soda market has experienced great ups and downs, and now it is back to the origin. According to the inspection of business agency, the factory price of caustic soda in Shandong Province was 700 yuan / ton at the beginning of September, and the price rose to 850 yuan / ton at the end of September, an increase of more than 20%. The market offer price was higher, an increase of nearly 30%. So far, the factory price of caustic soda in Shandong Province has dropped to 680 yuan / ton, a drop of more than 20%. Only from the perspective of the manufacturer’s supply, the drop is not enough to reflect the current market decline. At present, the market low price supply appears frequently, and the actual transaction price is constantly low.
The reasons for the sharp decline in the price of caustic soda are as follows:
| Benzalkonium chloride |
First of all, from the supply side, the chlor alkali plant has started normally. Although Dongying and Xinpu in Jiangsu Province have been overhauled this month, they can not support the market well. According to the relevant data, the caustic soda production in October 2019 was 2.84 million tons, and the factory overhaul in November was significantly lower than that in October, so the production will increase again, and the supply presents a serious situation of excess.
Secondly, on the demand side, with the arrival of winter heating peak staggering production in the north, alumina production in the downstream main alkali consuming industries is limited, and the start-up is reduced, and the demand for caustic soda is reduced again. At the same time, affected by the environmental protection, other downstream industries such as papermaking, textile, chemical fiber and so on have been weak, which is difficult to play a positive role in supporting the caustic soda market. On the 20th of this month, Weiqiao, Shandong Province lowered the purchase price of liquid alkali by 30 yuan / ton, 620 yuan / ton. This is the fourth time that the alumina enterprise lowered the purchase price of liquid alkali this month, which has a negative impact on the market. In the near future, the price of liquid alkali has been falling continuously, gradually approaching the cost line. Enterprises need to rely on liquid chlorine to adjust their profit space, which is also the main reason why chlor alkali enterprises have no negative production intention in the case of continuous falling price of liquid alkali.
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Thirdly, the unit of flake caustic soda enterprise started normally, and with the completion of maintenance of Zhongtai and Tianye in Xinjiang, the social inventory also increased correspondingly. Because of frequent price fluctuations of flake caustic soda, some traders did not send out the high price goods in the early stage, and the purchasing enthusiasm is not high. Currently, the northwest is in snowy weather, the transportation is blocked, and the enterprise’s shipment and storage pressure.
To sum up, the prominent contradiction between supply and demand is the main reason for the sharp decline of the caustic soda market. At present, the domestic caustic soda market has no obvious good support, and affected by the environmental protection, downstream enterprises are limited to start work, the demand is reduced again, the market has been in the situation of oversupply, after the forecast, the market is still mostly weak, and it is difficult to recover in the short term, but at present, the caustic soda Enterprises There is a slight loss at the cost boundary, and it may not be big to continue the downward trend. It is expected that after this round of decline, the next possibility will be to expect to store goods before the Spring Festival.
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