I. trend analysis
As shown in the figure above, today’s domestic copper price slightly declined and quoted 47208.33 yuan / ton, 0.51% higher than the previous day, 1.98% lower than the beginning of the year, and 5.3% lower than the previous year.
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II. Market analysis
Recently, copper prices fluctuated in a narrow range. Last week, the total inventory of bonded and futures exchanges decreased by nearly 30000 tons, indicating that the downstream consumption was stable. In October, China’s refined copper (electrolytic copper) output was 868000 tons, up 17.9% year on year; from January to October, the total refined copper output was 7831000 tons, up 8.1% year on year. In addition, in November, the operating rates of copper tube, copper rod and other enterprises decreased slightly compared with that in October. Due to the environmental limitation, production in North China was limited from time to time, and consumption has gradually turned to the off-season. However, with the sharp decrease of waste copper import in November and the shortage of waste copper, the replacement of waste copper by electric copper increased, offsetting the increase of refined copper output and the impact of off-season consumption, and the inventory rate remained slightly lower in the year. Copper market supply support is expected to continue due to copper mine disruption.
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III. future prospects
Based on the above situation, copper analysts of nonferrous branch of business agency think that: supply and demand are weak, low inventory support, and copper price is expected to maintain a narrow range of shocks in the short term.
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