I. price trend
The market price of ammonium sulphate fell this month, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. On November 4, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulfate was 616 yuan / ton, and on November 8, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulfate was 568 yuan / ton, with a 7.84% drop in price. So far, the ammonium sulphate commodity index on November 8 is 47.56, which is the same as yesterday, 55.25% lower than the highest point 106.28 (2012-05-24), and 29.77% higher than the lowest point 36.65 on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
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II. Market analysis
Product: the downstream demand is weak, the domestic main ports are mainly engaged in cargo supply, and the coking level cargo source is relatively sufficient. This week, the overall price of ammonium sulfate in China continues to decline. In October, the main factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 500-650 yuan / ton, that in Henan is about 500-700 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 520-720 yuan / ton, that in East China is 530-600 yuan, and that in North China is 460-550 yuan.
Industry chain: the domestic sulfuric acid plants run smoothly, the enthusiasm of downstream customers for sulfuric acid procurement rises, and the ex factory price of sulfuric acid rises in the future. Sulfuric acid enterprises often issue early orders, short-term construction is insufficient, and supply is slightly tight. Compound fertilizer enterprises are stuck in consolidation, cost and price decline, and the industry is lack of confidence in the future market. Near the phosphorus compound fertilizer meeting, dealers have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are hard to be optimistic.
| ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate) |
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 44th week of 2019 (11.4-11.8), there are 15 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are R22 (7.76%), acetone (5.71%) and chloroform (2.83%) There are 36 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 5 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 5.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are epichlorohydrin (- 8.77%), ammonium sulfate (- 7.84%) and hydrogen peroxide (- 7.21%) This week’s gains and losses were – 0.68%.
III. future forecast
According to analysts of ammonium sulfate of business association, due to limited market demand and insufficient trading, the market of winter storage has not been opened yet, and the market is still unclear. It’s hard to change the market in the near future. We look forward to the introduction of winter storage policy. It is expected that the internal ammonium sulfate will fluctuate in a narrow range in the later stage, and the coking ammonium sulfate will continue to be depressed.
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