I. price trend
Since the rapid rise of LNG caused by the northwest auction in late October, the price has been rising and falling in recent days. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on November 1 was 4750 yuan / ton, and the average price on November 5 was 4256.67 yuan / ton, with a 10.39% drop in LNG price, down 5.41% year-on-year compared with the same period last year.
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II. Analysis of influencing factors
Product: according to the data monitoring of business agency, as of November 5, LNG price of Inner Mongolia Erdos Star Energy Co., Ltd. is 4270 yuan / ton, and LNG price of Inner Mongolia etokeqian banner Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 4300 yuan / ton. The LNG price of Xinjiang Qinghua Energy Group Co., Ltd. is 4000 yuan / ton, that of Zizhou LNG plant of Shaanxi Lvyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 4300 yuan / ton, that of Xinjiang Guanghui naomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) is about 3200 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi Qinshui Xinao is 4200 yuan / ton, and that of Shaanxi Zhongyuan green energy natural gas Co., Ltd. is 4200 yuan / ton. The liquid prices of all regions have been continuously falling.
Market analysis: Recently, the LNG market has stopped rising and started to fall continuously. The large-scale skyrocketing market caused by the northwest auction was fleeting, and it continued to decline since the 2nd, and some manufacturers had a second price adjustment in a day. At present, some manufacturers need to buy high price gas source to maintain the power on, and some manufacturers need to wait and see. At present, the environmental protection is relatively strict, and we are actively building a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system. The downstream industrial gas demand is general, and the focus of transaction price is shifted down. Due to the limited acceptance capacity of the terminal, the liquid level of LNG plant rises, which is unfavorable for shipment, and the manufacturer bears pressure to reduce the price. The overall market is still in a situation of oversupply. Under the double restriction of the rising cost and the lack of obvious demand boost in the downstream, some liquid plants have the phenomenon of cost hanging upside down, which does not rule out the possibility of further price reduction.
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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 8 commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices on November 4, 2019, with WTI crude oil (3.73%), Brent crude oil (2.42%) and MTBE (1.58%) as the top three commodities There are 7 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are LNG (- 8.07%), coking coal (- 2.86%) and coke (- 2.00%) The average price of this day was – 0.31%.
III. future forecast
According to the LNG analyst of business club, in recent years, natural gas has been declining one after another, and the pressure of middlemen’s sales is too high. In order to reduce the price of goods, some middlemen’s profits have been hung upside down, and their mentality is relatively negative. It is expected that in the short term, the trend of LNG will be weak, or it will continue to bear the pressure of price reduction.
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