I. price trend
In October 2019, the domestic BDO market rose first and then stabilized. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the BDO price at the end of the first month was 9520 yuan / ton, down 15.38% from the same period last year.
| Sodium selenite |
II. Market analysis
Product: the domestic BDO market this month is stable for the time being, but the market atmosphere is slightly better than that in the earlier stage. In the early stage, the starting load of the factory is not high, and the inventory pressure is not available for the time being. Therefore, the mentality of the enterprise is stable, the intention to pull up is high, the price is low, and the traders are reluctant to sell. The attitude of market protection is continued, the offer is firm, the downstream market entry prudence is not reduced, and the waiting atmosphere is becoming stronger.
In terms of devices, the operation rate of BDO plant increased significantly in October, Cathay Pacific + Tunhe + Inner Mongolia Dongyuan + Ronghe + Kaixiang was restarted in succession, the on-site supply increased, the long-term supply tended to be stable, and the shortage of spot supply eased. Although the supply of re production plants is gradually filling the market, three new plants were well maintained in early November, including Xinjiang Meike, hecian and Meizhou Bay, The supply is tight again, and the support from the supply side is still there.
Industrial chain: raw materials: methanol: in October, the methanol market first experienced a significant decline, and rose slightly at the end of the month. At the end of the month, the overall market showed a shock and high state under the support of downstream and traders’ replenishment, and the early inventory details of some regions decreased, and it is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term.
Calcium carbide: this month, the calcium carbide production enterprises have normal devices, stable output, flexible market transaction price, and increased downstream arrival volume. It is expected that the calcium carbide market will be subject to short-term shocks
| Melamine |
On the downstream side, the overall commencement of the downstream has not been significantly improved, the demand side is weak, just need to make up positions, but the bargaining power is not strong, small single negotiation price is higher than high-end.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in October 2019, there were 20 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 8 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 9.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (25.36%), epichlorohydrin (25.33%) and sulfur (19.54%). There are 56 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 29 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 34.5% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are nitric acid (- 30.41%), butadiene (- 19.30%) and acetic acid (- 18.84%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 2.82%.
III. future forecast
Generally speaking, the cost support is limited. However, the recent maintenance good news continues to enter the market, and the supply of goods is still in a state of tension. The factory is bound to continue its intention to support the market and report a small increase in inventory. However, it is constrained by the downstream demand. BDO analysts of the business agency predict that although the BDO market has a rising trend in the short term, the increase should be around 100 yuan / ton. Specifically, we need to pay attention to the restart of Tianye devices Condition.
| Potassium monopersulfate |