I. overall trend
In October, the trend of three major PE products in the domestic market showed a downward trend, and LLDPE, HDPE and LDPE in East China continued to decline this month. According to the monitoring of the business association, the end of LLDPE 7042 was reduced to about 7450 yuan / ton; the end of LDPE 2426h was reduced to about 8400 yuan / ton; the end of HDPE 5000S was reduced to about 8316.67 yuan / ton; the decline range was all in the range of 200-300 yuan / ton.
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II. Market analysis
October was the peak season of demand for agricultural film, but the focus of PE market continued to move down, and the downstream orders were not as good as previous years, and the price of raw materials was expected to be more bearish. This month’s linear futures fell in shock, although rebounded during the period, but the overall weakness, Limited good for the market. Petrochemical has repeatedly lowered the factory price, weakened the market cost support, and affected by environmental protection, the production of terminal enterprises is blocked. Most of the lower reaches are just in need of replenishment, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high. In the month, petrochemicals maintained a strong inventory control capacity, and the inventory was kept at a medium low level, but the good continued to be insufficient, which still could not save the declining situation. Most of the goods are shipped by the carrier, and the price continuously gives way to the profit.
Futures: on October 31, the opening price of main contracts of polyethylene futures l2001 was 7260, the highest price was 7335, the lowest price was 7255, the closing price was 7270, the former settlement price was 7285, the settlement price was 7295, down 15, down 0.07%, the volume was 388462, the position was 619888, and the daily increase was 4334. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)
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In terms of downstream enterprises, in October, the downstream demand of the agricultural film market basically entered the peak season stage. In the peak season, many manufacturers have ordered a large number of goods in advance, with relatively stable supply and demand and high load operation of the device. At the end of October, the operating rate of agricultural film was about 58%. End of mulch film and garlic film. The overall economic situation is flat, the downstream operation wait-and-see mentality is obvious, and the procurement is just needed.
Import and export: about 1.3402 million tons of PE import in September 2019. Among them, the import volume of LLDPE is 40200 tons; the import volume of HDPE is 663400 tons; the import volume of LDPE is 276600 tons, and the total export volume of PE in September 2019 is 17200 tons.
III. future forecast
PE analysts of business club believe that the volatility of futures trend to some extent depresses the confidence of the industry, the traditional peak demand season did not meet expectations, the international crude oil fell, and the demand for agricultural film turned weak. At present, it is close to the end of the peak season, with limited market benefits, but at present, the petrochemical inventory has fallen down. In addition, due to the shutdown of some manufacturers’ devices, the market supply has decreased, which supports the market. It is expected that the PE market will decline slightly in November.
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